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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, January 17, 2024
Heavy snowfall and drifting by strong winds blowing from the west will cause a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger to rise throughout the day on drifted slopes at all elevations. Dangerous conditions exist, and people are likely to trigger life-threatening avalanches failing on a widespread buried, persistent weak layer. The danger will rise to HIGH by this evening, with large natural avalanches becoming likely tonight.
People should continue to stay off of and out from under backcountry slopes steeper than 30° at all elevations.
Low
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Weather and Snow
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted slopes steeper than 30° at all elevations, and heavy snow and drifting will cause the danger to rise during the day today. People are likely to trigger long-running, destructive, and life-threatening avalanches. Poor snow structure exists on most slopes, with a stiff layer of wind-drifted snow now overloading a widespread layer of very weak, sugary, or faceted snow from the December dry spell.
Winds from the southwest picked up again this morning, blowing 25 to 30 mph with a 53 mph gust at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. At 9500' on Paris Peak the wind is blowing 20 to 30 mph from the south-southwest, and it's 18° F with a wind chill value of 1° F.
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 26° F and 77 inches of total snow. A few inches of new snow have accumulated at the site already this morning, with .4" SWE (Snow Water Equivalent). It's 23° F, and there's 2" of new snow at the new Card Canyon weather station.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains in the Logan Zone extending through 11:00 Thursday morning. Today, 8 to 12 inches of snow accumulation is possible in upper-elevation terrain. Tonight, another 13 to 19 inches could accumulate, accompanied by increasingly strong winds from the west-southwest.
Snowfall should taper off tomorrow morning, with 2 to 4 inches falling during the day. Expect cloudy and comparatively mild conditions, with snow flurries on Friday and a few inches of snow on Saturday. Unsettled, snowy weather will continue well into next week before high pressure builds over the area later in the work week.
Recent Avalanches
Numerous large natural avalanches were observed with clearing Monday. A handful of sizable avalanches were remotely triggered and reported by sledders in the Providence Canyon Area. At least one was on a south-facing slope at around 9000' in elevation. Avalanches ranged from about 1' deep down low to 4' deep up high, and some were several hundred feet wide. Observers report continued widespread collapsing, including in low-elevation terrain in the Logan Canyon Area.
A remotely triggered avalanche in upper Providence Canyon (1-15-24, Wolford)
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today, human-triggered slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer could be large and life-threatening. Large, long-running, and destructive natural avalanches are likely this evening and especially tonight as heavy snowfall and drifting by intensifying winds from the west overload slopes plagued by widespread buried layers of weak, sugary snow or facets and feathery surface hoar that developed during the prolonged December dry spell.
  • Avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse, from below!
  • Collapsing or whumpfs and shooting cracks indicate unstable snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • Heavy storm snow and wind-drifted snow is overloading slopes with poor snow structure, and large avalanches failing on the December persistent weak layer are likely.
  • Loose and soft slab avalanches of storm snow failing within the new snow or on yesterday's surface will be increasingly likely as heavy snow accumulates today and tonight.
  • Exposed slopes, where the wind is drifting the new snow, will rapidly develop dangerous wind slabs. Watch for and avoid stiffer drifted snow on the Lee side of prominent ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gully walls, mid-slope rollovers, and cliff bands.
Additional Information
On Tuesday, we went for a short tour in Logan Canyon to check the stability of the low-elevation snow. Paige explains what we found in this short video.
A large natural avalanche was visible on Monday in the Wilderness above Wellsville. (1-15-24)
Always follow safe travel protocols on or under slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners.
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place.
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter any signs of instability, like recent avalanches, audible collapses (whumpfs), or cracking in drifted snow.
General Announcements
-For all questions on forecasts, education, KBYG, events, online purchases, or fundraising: call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry: go HERE.
-We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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