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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, March 21, 2022
Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exist above treeline where strong, gusty, northerly winds will create fresh, unstable drifts on all aspects today. Although S and W facing slopes are the primary deposition zones, crossloading will cause fresh drifts to form on all aspects. Look for them on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and subridges. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. The danger should decrease with elevation but remain vigilant and avoid steep, wind drifted slopes.
A "scary" MODERATE danger remains for triggering a deadly avalanche 2'-3' deep on a buried persistent weak layer. This weak layer is present on all slopes facing W-N-E and has been responsible for accidents and fatalities throughout the region. These avalanches can be triggered at all elevations but areas of heightened concern are on steep, northerly facing slopes right around treeline. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify features of concern.
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Weather and Snow
Snotel sites are down this morning but the La Sal mountains picked up 7" of new snow. A deep trough centered over the 4 Corners has given us a surprise shot of snow that has exceeded expectations. After the passage of the cold front, northerly winds are going to crank up and we'll see blustery conditions throughout the day and continuing tomorrow. Mostly cloudy skies this morning should gradually clear out by mid-day. High temps will be in the low to mid 30's. The rest of the week will see a dry and steadily warming trend with a veritable heat wave by the weekend.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard SNOTEL (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson SNOTEL (8858')
Snowpack
Gusty northerly winds today will blow and drift the new snow on to all aspects. Though S and W facing slopes will be the prime deposition zones, cross loading will create fresh drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges on all aspects. Fresh drifts will be recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes today.
The buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow that formed during the Jan-Feb high pressure remains a concern, and it is still capable of producing dangerous, human triggered avalanches over two feet deep on all slopes facing the north side of the compass. Here is a video of what I found in the La Sals yesterday:
Recent Avalanches
I'm sorry to report an avalanche fatality in the neighboring San Juan Mountains of Colorado. A lone snowboarder was caught and buried near Lizard Head Pass on a steep, rocky, NW facing slope. We share a similar snowpack, and this is a painful reality check of what it means to have a reactive buried persistent weak layer. Our hearts go out to all those affected by the tragedy. Here is the preliminary report.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of loose, sugary faceted snow exists on W-N-E aspects beneath a slab that is 2' -3' thick. This problem is most pronounced on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E near treeline and below and the weak layer is easy to locate with your shovel. The weakest snow can be found on northerly aspects right around treeline and below. Above treeline the weak layer distribution is much more variable and it is hard to track. The bottom line is that attempting to outsmart this avalanche problem is a dangerous proposition. Likely trigger points include areas of shallow snow, slope margins, rocky outcroppings, and steep convex roll overs. If you are of the mindset to begin creeping into avalanche terrain keep in mind that signs of instability will no longer be obvious but that is not necessarily an indication of stability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong northerly winds today will form sensitive wind drifts up to a foot deep. Although S and W facing slopes were the primary deposition zones, cross loading allowed drifts to form on northerly facing slopes as well. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcrops. Wind slabs will be more stubborn to release today, and they are mostly shallow, but they have added complexity to the snowpack and if triggered they could knock you off your feet, or even worse, lead to the release of a slab on the buried persistent weak layer. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and they may sound hollow underneath. Scalloped or rippled surfaces are also signs of wind loading. Avoid steep slopes where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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