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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, March 17, 2024
Heavy snowfall accompanied by strong winds over the past several days have caused a spike in avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches remain possible to likely on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects are the most dangerous, but avalanches involving the most recent snow remain possible on all aspects.
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Weather and Snow
Weather
The cutoff low responsible for this long duration storm continues to churn over Arizona. A plume of moisture feeding into the 4 Corners will keep the threat of snow showers alive in our area and we could see 3"-5" of new snow. Monday looks to be mostly sunny with generally quiet weather for the upcoming week.
General Conditions
Up to 2' of snow has fallen in the mountains since Thursday, containing 3.0" of snow water equivalent (SWE). This is quite a dump and it's going to take a little time to settle out. In addition, strong easterly winds on Thursday and Friday created deep, unstable slabs of wind drifted snow. In our travels yesterday we found deep, and difficult to manage heavy dense snow. Several parties reported collapsing, a red flag sign of instability, and Chris Benson sent in this great, detailed observation where he also noted a weak, underlying snow structure. This load will be a good test for it all, but we need to let the dust settle so to speak before we bite off any large terrain. Human triggered avalanches 2' deep or more remain possible to likely, with an outside chance of an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow near the ground. Avoiding avalanche terrain is still recommended, especially steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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