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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, February 3, 2019
Blowing and drifting snow have created dangerous avalanche conditions and the avalanche danger is HIGH on upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep, wind drifted slopes, and natural avalanches are possible off the steep, higher peaks. Above treeline, shallow wind slabs may be found on all aspects, but deeper drifts will have formed on slopes facing NW-N-E. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow, and stay out from under high, steep faces that have a northerly aspect.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
About 6" of dense snow has fallen overnight at Camp Jackson and Buckboard Flat, with possibly up to 10" at upper elevations. But the real story is the wind. Overnight, winds on Abajo Peak have been blowing in the 25-30 mph with gusts into the 40's. The trend will increase today with wind speeds of 30-40 mph, and gusts as high as 50 out of the SW. Snow should continue through the morning with another 3"-5" possible. High temps at 10,000' will be right around freezing, or slightly above what they are now. Needless to say, dangerous avalanche conditions will exist today, both from wind drifted snow, and from new stress being added to buried, persistent weak layers. If you are out and about, lay low and out of the wind as much as possible. Stick to low angle, wind sheltered terrain, and stay out from under steep slopes and high faces..
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Natural and human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are likely today. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New snow, and wind drifted snow will add additional stress to buried, persistent weak layers in the snowpack. Our primary concern is layer of weak, sugary snow at the base of the snowpack, and human triggered avalanches failing on this weak layer are likely today. The danger is greatest on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-E, but in some areas the problem wraps around to W and SE facing slopes.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.