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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Monday, February 13, 2023
Expect a rising avalanche danger from new and wind drifted snow over the next several days! Be alert to changing conditions and avoid steep slopes that have more than 6" of freshly deposited, wind drifted snow.

Human triggered avalanches are currently unlikely but small avalanches involving hard slabs of wind drifted snow remain possible. Expect the danger to increase with new snow and wind.

A remote possibility also remains for triggering a deep avalanche on a weak layer of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snowpack. You are most likely to encounter this problem on very steep, northerly facing slopes that have a shallower snowpack.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
Have you been hearing how cell phones and such can interfere with your avalanche beacon? The "20/50 Rule" is that you want your beacon 20cm (8") away from other electronics while transmitting and 50cm (20") away from electronics while searching. Get the full scoop here.
Weather and Snow
An active period will bring snow to the mountains starting today and lasting through Wednesday.
NWS Forecast for the Abajo Mountains
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')

Snowpack Summary and General Conditions
In my travels to the Abajos on Friday, I found the full gamut of wind affected surfaces from crusted, to hard wind board, textured sastrugi, and finally, hard slabs of wind drifted snow. It's getting harder to find areas with soft snow. Hard slabs formed on Wednesday are now mostly stuck in place but you may still be able to trigger one somewhere in wind affected terrain. Isolated, or "pockety" in nature, hard slabs of wind drifted snow are most easily detected by their hollow sound or feel. Mostly shallow, they won't likely bury you but they could sweep you off your feet or carry you over a cliff. South facing slopes are either firm or breakable crust. They'll get soft and slushy as the day progresses. In shallow snowpack areas it is still possible to trigger a deeper avalanche failing on the November persistent weak layer. You are most likely to find this problem on northerly facing slopes in areas of very steep, more radical terrain.
Additional Information
If you are getting out in the backcountry, we'd love to hear what you're seeing. Please submit observations here. For the most recent snowpack observations click here. You can also send an email to [email protected] or give me a call with anything noteworthy, especially avalanches! 801-647-8896
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.