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Forecast for the Abajo Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 8, 2017

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today on steep, upper elevation slopes that have a NW-E-SE aspect. Suspect the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges and gully walls. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Out of the wind zone at mid and lower elevations the danger is mostly LOW.

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Weather and Snow

The mountains picked up 3-5" of new snow from Thursday's storm. Conditions are still relatively thin, but we are inching forward. Dustin Randall was out on Friday and said that the grass is getting covered up! For a report from his travels go here.

For real time weather data click on the links below:

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.

Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Thursday's snow has blown into shallow drifts above tree line on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. This hasn't contributed to a siginificant increase in the avalanche danger, but when you are out on the mountains, here are two potential problems to be aware of:

-Wind Slabs: Wind drifted snow accumulates on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow that may crack when when weight is applied. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

-Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure.

Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

Additional Information

An "atmospheric river" is poised to deliver moisture throughout the region for the upcoming week. How much this will affect our mountains remains to be seen as we appear to be just on the southern edge of the flow. Best chance for significant snow will come on Monday

Today

A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Windy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Windy, with a south southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Monday

Snow, mainly before 4pm. High near 34. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Monday Night

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a west wind 30 to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Breezy.

Wednesday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Breezy.

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