Uncertainty in the weather: The challenge with avalanche forecasting on days like today is that so much of the forecast is hinged upon the outcome of the weather. What’s clear is that the snow that we have out there is weak, faceted, and is just waiting for a slab to develop. Conditions will become dangerous quickly if we begin to see significant snowfall develop, but that remains to be seen. When SWE (snow water equivalent) amounts range from .5 to 1.5 inches over the next 24 hours, that greatly influences the range of hazard and overall avalanche activity expected. If we get the low end of those numbers, we may see some small slab avalanches that break, maybe even an isolated large avalanche in wind-drifted terrain- fitting squarely in the moderate hazard. But if we get the high end with 1.5 inches of SWE, then we may see more significant activity begin, and even natural avalanches could occur. The danger associated with our PWL then roars back to life quickly with the shallow snow depths and the many slopes that avalanches during the Dec 6-7 cycles repeating. This could nudge us into Considerable avalanche hazard quickly. Stay tuned.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.