Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Friday - January 6, 2017 - 7:08am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today on steep, upper elevation slopes that have a NW-E-SE aspect. Suspect the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges and gully walls. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Out of the wind zone at mid and lower elevations the danger is mostly LOW.




special announcement
current conditions

Camp Jackson is only reporting 3" of new snow this morning. The Abajo Peak wind sensor is down this morning but regionally, winds have been steady out of the southwest at 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40's in upper elevations for the past several days. They backed off and shifted to the NW last night. Expect them to increase again today. Snow conditions remain thin and the surface in exposed locations is beginning to look like a moonscape. Many south facing slopes have been stripped to the ground.

For real time weather data click on the links below:

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.


Still pretty thin up on south facing slopes above North Creek Pass.

Winter hungry folks are still finding enough snow to slide around on however.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The small amount of new snow has not changed the avalanche danger. When you are traveling up there, here are a couple things to be aware of:

-Wind Slabs: Wind drifted snow accumulates on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow that may crack when when weight is applied. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

-Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure.

Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

weather

Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 14. Wind chill values as low as -15. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 8. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

Sunday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.