Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Wednesday, December 22, 2021
Wednesday, December 22, 2021
Strong winds and dense heavy snow slam into the range late Thursday and we can expect increasing avalanche danger as the storm evolves.
For today, a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep, wind drifted, upper elevation slopes, particularly those facing the north half of the compass and human triggered avalanches are LIKELY. Once initiated, even a small slide will quickly get out of hand, especially if it breaks to old, October snow. It'll be packing a punch and it's gonna boss you around.
You'll find MODERATE avalanche danger at mid elevations. While slightly more manageable, steep, shady terrain remains suspect and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
I know you're looking to avoid the avalanche dragon today, so the ticket is to simply switch aspect or lose elevation and set your sights on terrain that was bare prior to last weeks big storm. You'll find generally LOW avalanche danger on slopes with these characteristics.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Just 'cause you can see it from the road doesn't necessarily make it safe and Wolf Creek Pass is a perfect example. The weekend crew did it right by stacking tracks in the sunny bowl with no old snow issues, while avoiding the temptation to dive into the steep, shady bowl where the dangerous Avalanche Dragon or Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) is found... nice work!
Weather and Snow
NOWCAST-
High clouds drape the mountains this morning and temperatures are rather mild, registering in the low to mid 20's. With a storm on the doorstep, west and southwest winds are beginning to bump into the 30's and 40's along the high ridges. It's still low tide near the trailheads, but gain some elevation and you'll find we've got a respectable base which averages close to 30" in most upper elevation areas.
FORECAST-
Expect partly cloudy skies this morning with temperatures rising into the mid 30's. Southwest winds ramp up throughout the day, blowing in the 40's and 50's, becoming a nuisance as the day wares on. A few snow showers develop late tonight.
FUTURECAST-
It's gonna get stormy and the real deal arrives Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Look for dense, heavy snow coupled with strong winds developing Thursday night. Cold air arrives Friday and snow densities decrease somewhat. At first glance, I think storm totals look promising and should stack up in the 18" range with close to 2" of H2O.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click HERE and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Ted and I rolled into Upper Moffit Basin Monday to work on a weather station and discovered this monster avalanche that peeled off Windy Peak sometime late Saturday. Breaking 10' deep and 600' wide... an eye-catcher for sure. In addition, there's no shortage of both human triggered and natural avalanches from last weeks storm and an updated list is found HERE
Observations, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On Saturday, Andy and Joey stomped around the south half of the range and have an excellent observation from their travels found HERE. Above, Andy pretty much sums up what's going on with our dangerous, strong snow over weak snow setup.
Let's face it, our snowpack is deceptively tricky because a strong, cohesive slab rests on fragile, old October snow... or what we call a persistent weak layer (PWL). This is always a dangerous combination in our mountains because the stronger snow feels bomber under our skis, board, or sled. This setup allows us to get well out onto the slope before we kick the legs out from underneath, the weak layer fails (usually around a bush or rock we can't see under the snow), the avalanche breaks above us, and now the entire seasons snowpack crashes down on top of us. The most likely place to encounter this avalanche dragon is on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass, especially terrain that harbors old, October snow.
But here's the good news... it doesn't mean we can't ride. It does mean we need to avoid terrain with these characteristics. You can have a blast in a big open meadow or on low angle terrain with no steep slopes above or adjacent to you... done and done :)
Additional Information
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires 24 hours after the day and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Thursday December 23rd.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.