UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, March 23, 2025
The danger is MODERATE on steep slopes facing W-N-E near and above treeline, and on northerly aspects below. In these areas deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible. The danger is greatest on steep slopes near treeline that face N-NE.

A MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving old hard slabs of wind drifted snow on steep, northerly aspects above treeline. Look for and avoid, stiff, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Triggered wind slabs have the potential to step down deeper into the snowpack causing larger and more dangerous avalanches.
As the day heats up the danger will rise to MODERATE for loose wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Thanks to all who attended MountainFilm the last two nights and a huge shout out to UAC non-profit Executive Director Caroline Miller, and Communications and Development Coordinator Claire Hurty for coming down to lend a hand and to check out the La Sals! Thanks also to our local volunteers and generous sponsors.
Our Spring Campaign is in full swing, and there are two great ways to support forecasting, awareness, and education across Utah: Donate to our Spring Campaign, or Bid on items in our Spring Auction. Every dollar donated helps keep the backcountry community on top.
They will not be working on the Loop Road today.
Geyser Pass Road: The road is plowed and is melting out down to the dirt.
Grooming Conditions: Trails were last groomed on Thursday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 121" Depth at Gold Basin: 50"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 20-25 Temp: 21° F
Weather
Northwest winds the last six hours have averaged 20-25 mph along ridge tops. Under sunny skies, they'll decrease today as we slide into a rapid warming trend. High temperatures will be in the low 40's today, high 40's tomorrow, and up into the 50's by Tuesday. What looks like a minor storm on Friday should bring a return to cooler temperatures.
General Conditions
Spring conditions will be in full effect today. This morning expect to find melt freeze crusts on all sun exposed slopes. They'll become wet and sloppy as the day heats up and we'll see a rising danger for loose wet avalanches. Dry snow can still be found on sheltered, northerly aspects but they've been affected by wind to varying degrees above treeline. Persistent weak layers of faceted snow remain a problem on slopes facing W-N-E. The most dangerous areas are on steep northerly aspects where wind drifted snow has added stress to these buried weak layers. On these slopes, triggered wind slabs have the potential to step down deeper into the snowpack causing larger and more dangerous avalanches.
Windward slopes above treeline are scoured while leeward north and easterly aspects are drifted with hard wind slabs. Note the "fat" wind roll on the lookers left chute on the NE face of Mount Tukno (photo above). South and westerly aspects above treeline are scoured down to the rocks on Mount Mellenthin while NE slopes off the Laurel Ridge are heavily wind loaded (photo below).
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Riders over on the Manti Skyline are having close calls with deep avalanches and full burials. They have a similar snowpack and it's a strong reminder of what can happen.
See the complete avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
If you've been following along, you're tired of hearing about persistent weak layers of faceted snow. So are we. This is the time of year when we are usually able to put this problem to bed but with such a dry season prior to Valentine's Day, the entire snowpack had become loose, weak, and faceted, especially near treeline and below on W-N-E aspects. Since February 14, several storms have built a well connected cohesive slab 2-3 feet thick on top of these faceted weak layers. These layers are very slow to heal but the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is decreasing. This is largely due to the strength of the over-riding slab, and how deeply buried the weak layers are. Shallower snowpack areas are the most dangerous, and likely trigger points are steep convexities, shallow rocky areas, and thin slab margins.
In my travels on Thursday I dug on a north aspect below treeline at 10,400'. In the photos below you can clearly see the weak, faceted snow underneath the over-riding slab. For the first time since Valentine's Day my extended column test produced no results, or ECTX. This indicates that avalanches are becoming more difficult to trigger but this is just one sample in one location. Knowing what's underneath, it's still a gamble, and I'm going to continue to hold my cards close.
The above photo illustrates a dense 4-1 finger hard slab over top of a fist hard, weak layer. The entire snowpack from the fist layer down is faceted. It's not a good looking set up.
For the first time since Valentine's Day, an extended column test produced no results (ECTX).
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It may still be possible to trigger an old hard wind slab that formed during the week. You are most likely to encounter them on northerly aspects above treeline. Wind slabs are often recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and they may sound or feel hollow underneath. Slabs of wind drifted snow also overly buried persistent weak layers. In theses areas, a triggered wind slab could step down causing a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche. Avoiding steep, wind drifted, northerly aspects remains the best policy.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As the day heats up, and cold snow sees the sun for the first time, loose wet avalanches will be possible. The danger follows the sun with east facing slopes heating up first, then south, and then west. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Stay off of, and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Additional Information
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.