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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 17, 2025
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today. On slopes facing W-N-E, deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2-4 feet deep failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible with the most likely areas being on steep northerly aspects right around treeline. Above treeline on slopes facing NW-N-NE-E-SE, it's still possible to trigger a slab of wind drifted snow. Recent drifts have formed in areas of consequential terrain in the high country and if triggered, they also have the potential to step down into buried persistent weak layers. Continuing to avoid steep, wind drifted slopes is the best practice.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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They will be working on the Loop Road today and it will be closed from 8:30-5:30 on the south end. Access to Geyser is from Castle Valley.
Geyser Pass Road: The lower half has mostly melted out while ruts and packed snow exist on the upper end. 4x4 required.
Grooming Conditions: I packed and rolled out the trail into Gold Basin yesterday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 6" Season Total Snow: 109" Depth at Gold Basin: 52"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 11° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 91%
Weather
Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake are down as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.
Moderate to strong southwest winds yesterday were mostly confined to the upper elevations. They ramped up considerably and became more widespread around midnight last night. Today look for increasing clouds, warm temperatures in the upper 30's, and blustery southwest winds ahead of an upper level trough moving towards the Four Corners. Snowfall begins with the arrival of a cold front Tuesday morning. The system has been downgraded a bit and 4-6 inches seem likely. It will be windy. Temperatures crater into the single digits Tuesday night as the storm moves on and flow shifts to the northwest. Wednesday looks to be mostly calm, clear, and cool.
General Conditions
It was an all time sunny powder day in the La Sals yesterday and this weekend saw some of the best turning and riding conditions of the season. It was great to see so many folks out getting after it on south facing terrain while the getting was good. A strong sun and warm temperatures put an end to that yesterday, and all sun exposed slopes will be thoroughly crusted over this morning. Soft snow can still be found on northerly aspects but you still need to travel lightly in these areas. In our travels into the alpine yesterday, we collapsed a small slope that would certainly have avalanched in steeper, more consequential terrain. This was on a northeast aspect right at treeline - the bullseye area for our persistent weak layer problem, and it indicates that the threat remains real. Persistent weak layers of faceted snow remain widespread on slopes facing W-N-E with a dense, hard slab 2-3 feet thick resting on top. Deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches remain possible in these areas. There's been a lot of wind drifting above treeline and slabs of wind drifted snow may still be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider on north through easterly aspects. Recent slabs of drifted snow are also putting pressure on buried persistent weak layers and steep, wind drifted slopes should be avoided.
One of those days!
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
In our travels on Friday, we observed this natural wind slab avalanche in Talking Mountain Cirque. Note the rippled effect of wind drifted snow on all surrounding slopes and on the slope above.
See the complete avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Typically, by this time of year, we are getting close to putting our PWL problem in our rear view mirror. Unfortunately, we have a particularly weak and shallow snowpack this season brought on by few storms and long dry spells. Prior to the Valentine's Day storm, pretty much the entire snowpack was loose, weak, and faceted on slopes facing W-N-E. The Valentine's Day storm built a thick, dense slab on top of this weak structure creating one of the worst snowpacks I've ever seen. The Valentine's storm produced a few natural avalanches but not a widespread cycle and things were left hanging in the balance. The storm last week added a little more weight producing a few more avalanches including one very large, full depth release in Horse Creek. And here we are again. The underlying structure remains very poor and we've added a little more weight. The bullseye area for this problem is on steep, northerly aspects near treeline, and the likelihood decreases the further you step outside of this area. Personally, however, I'm going to continue to avoid any slope steeper than 30 degrees where this structure exists.
Ryan Huels performed an extended column test on a west aspect on Saturday and got a score of ECTP 23. We had similar results on Friday. Although stubborn, any propagation shows a propensity to avalanche, it's just a matter of finding the right trigger point. This could happen after one or many people have skied the same slope. It's just not something I'm comfortable messing with right now.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recently formed wind slabs continue to be a potential threat today. They are the most widespread on north through easterly aspects near and above treeline which is also where you are also most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer problem. Steep, wind drifted slopes in these areas should be avoided. You may also find recent deposits of wind drifted snow on southeasterly aspects. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, priamrily in upper elevation, wind expsoed terrain. Fresh drifts are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.
Heavily wind drifted slopes on the NW face of Mount Tukuhnikivatz. Avoid this kind of terrain.
Additional Information
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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