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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Monday morning, March 3, 2025
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on mid and upper-elevation slopes facing northwest through east, as well as some upper-elevation slopes facing west and southeast, where triggering a 2–4 foot deep avalanche on a persistent weak layer remains possible.
As a storm system moves through northern Utah this afternoon, avalanche danger could rise on upper-elevation slopes, with sensitive shallow slabs of wind-drifted snow developing. Assess snow and terrain carefully.
At lower elevations where the snow has not had a solid refreeze, the possibility of small, wet snow avalanches cannot be ruled out.
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Weather and Snow
This morning, under overcast skies, temperatures are in the upper teens to upper-20s °F. Winds are northeast at 5-10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph at mid-elevation ridgelines and 10-15 mph with gusts reaching the mid-20s at upper elevations. Wind speeds peaked early, with gusts around 40 mph. By 5 AM, there has been no snowfall accumulation.
Today, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s. A weak storm system will pass through today and tonight, but most of the snow will miss the northern mountains. Winds will shift westerly, averaging 5-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph at higher ridgelines. The best chance for steady snowfall comes tonight through Tuesday morning when winds shift northwest. Daytime totals may range from a trace to 2 inches. Snow totals could be between 5-10 inches for Provo.
The next storm, expected late Wednesday through Friday, looks promising with 1.5 to 2.5 inches of water content, potentially bringing 18-30 inches of snow.
With colder temperatures, the range now has a mix of snow surfaces. South-facing slopes and some mid-elevation north-facing terrain likely have a strong crust, while upper-elevation north-facing areas have a few inches of recrystallized facets. As the next storms hit, new snow and shallow wind slabs will have ideal bed surfaces to fail on across all aspects, with even light snow and wind potentially triggering shallow sluffs or soft slabs.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported from the backcountry.
Observations and Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches 2–4 feet deep on persistent weak layers are still possible, though the risk is decreasing as these layers become less reactive. Snowpack depths vary widely across the range, from 6 feet in some areas to 2-4 feet on previously avalanched slopes with weak faceted snow. In some spots, full propagation results were observed, where avalanches could still trigger.
Continue probing and digging into the snowpack before committing to steep, north-facing terrain. Avoid recently avalanched areas, steep rocky slopes, or areas with shallow snowpacks, as they may still hold weak layers. The safest option is to avoid steep, shady terrain where these weak layers remain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds gusted up to 40 mph overnight from the northeast. Any lingering cold snow, combined with fresh snow from today, may create shallow wind drifts in upper-elevation terrain throughout the day.
New wind drifts or snow will rest on a variety of good bed surfaces, making them prone to shallow but sensitive sluffs or slabs of wind-drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
While upper elevations have finally cooled down, many lower-elevation areas didn’t get a solid refreeze. With the forecasted warm temperatures, wet snow avalanches are still a concern at lower elevations, where the snow remains saturated from the recent above-freezing period.
Check out this observation for some thoughts. HERE (photo: Kelly, Evatt, Breen)
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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