Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 1, 2025
Although the likelihood has finally decreased, a very real MODERATE avalanche danger remains on steep slopes facing W-N-E, and human-triggered avalanches 2 feet deep or more, failing on a persistent weak layer of faceted snow are possible. The danger is greatest on steep northerly aspects near treeline.
As the day heats up we could again see the danger rise to MODERATE on steep, sun exposed slopes where loose wet, avalanches may be possible. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, or sloppy wet snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Check out the latest UAC podcast with forecaster Brett "Kowboy" Kobernick where he discusses faceted persistent weak layers and how "nobody is immune from getting killed in an avalanche."
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Geyser Pass Road: The road to the winter trailhead is mostly melted out down to the dirt. A few areas of hard packed snow and ice remain near the top.
Grooming Conditions: I groomed into Gold Basin on Thursday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 82" Depth at Gold Basin: 37"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: N/A Temp: 26° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 66%
Weather
Pre Laurel Peak wind station and the Gold Basin storm stake will be down through the weekend as we install upgrades including a web cam to the site.
Under clear skies mountain temperatures are in the mid 20's. Light southeast winds overnight will shift to the south southwest today. High temperatures will again climb up into the low 40's at 10,000'. A chance for snow develops on Sunday night into Monday as a weak storm tracks by to the south. A more active pattern looks to be picking up later next week.
General Conditions
It's really felt like spring in the mountains the past several days and the snow surface has felt the effects (check out my observation from Thursday). Sun exposed slopes are crusted over and many south aspects are melted out to the ground. If you get it early, south slopes that still have snow cover should have a supportable, corn like surface this morning. Northwest winds a few days back etched the snow surface in exposed locations and you'll have to seek shelter for soft snow. Underneath, the snowpack is still like early January. At 66% of average, and with long dry spells in between storms, the snowpack remains shallow, weak, and faceted. The Valentine's Day storm capped it all off with a dense slab creating a text book "strong snow over weak snow" scenario. Outward signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing have diminished, the surface is tired and worn, and things don't appear to be all that dangerous. But the underlying structure remains very poor and I don't trust it. The only safe strategy is to keep your slope angles to less than 30 degrees which is what I plan to continue to do, possibly for the remainder of the season.
For more on this check out the UAC blog post Understanding the Risk of Persistent Weak Layer Avalanches .
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
See the avalanche database here.
Our closest neighbors over in the San Juans continue to experience frequent, human triggered avalanches and they even had a large, natural avalanche on February 24. Check out their database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer problem remains fairly widespread on slopes facing W-N-E. Outward signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing have diminished, but stability tests, although stubborn, remain reactive. The bottom line is that human-triggered avalanches up to 2 feet deep or more, failing on a weak faceted layer remain highly possible. The danger is most acute on north and easterly aspects near treeline, but slopes below the treeline harbor the same poor snowpack structure. Travel advice is to avoid any slope steeper than 30 degrees where this problem exists.
This photo is from my last field day on Sunday. The structure hasn't changed. An extended column test produced results of ECTP 24. Dave experienced similar results on Monday.
Additional Information
In the video below, I describe one of the worst snowpack structures I've ever seen. I am avoiding avalanche terrain on any slope that holds this poor structure and this will likely be my mindset until spring. Some seasons you just can't touch steep terrain, and this may be one of those years.
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.