Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Nikki Champion on
Saturday morning, February 17, 2024

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on slopes facing west through north through east across the mid and upper elevations, where moderate to strong winds have created sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow, and it remains possible to trigger a hard slab avalanche breaking 4-6 feet deep on a deeply buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow.

The danger will rise to MODERATE on the solar slopes as the new snow heats up. Remember, even "smaller" slides can be dangerous in high-consequence terrain. Rollerballs are the first sign that the snow surface is becoming wet, and it might be time to switch aspects.

Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making will be essential today.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

This morning, skies are clear, and temperatures are in the low teens°F. Winds are primarily from the east and southeast, blowing at 5-10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph. Winds have been progressively decreasing since yesterday afternoon and evening, with some overnight gusts reaching up to 60 mph. Snowfall tapered off around 9 PM.

Today should be a beautiful day in the mountains, with temperatures rising into the mid 30s°F. Winds will shift more to the southeasterly direction and remain light. High clouds may begin to build over the area by late afternoon, but overall, it should be a sunny day.

Extended: The next system should begin after midnight tonight, bringing another 3-7" of snowfall by Sunday morning. Snow on Sunday morning will turn to showers by the afternoon. After a break Sunday night into Monday morning, expect intermittent snow chances from late Monday to early Thursday, with the main snowfall expected on Wednesday.

Recent Avalanches

Several more avalanches were reported in the backcountry on Friday. One avalanche of concern is a large natural that occured in the UFO Bowls. This avalanche failed 3 feet deep and ran the full length of 200 feet. It likely failed at an interface between storms or had previously avalanched throughout the season, and was failing on facets near the ground.

On Thursday, one Cottonwood resort reported a natural avalanche that broke into old, faceted snow on a northwest aspect at 10,600 feet.

All recent reported avalanche activity.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

With moderate to strong winds over the past 24 hours and plenty of fresh snow, sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow are likely to be encountered on all upper-elevation slopes and mid-elevation terrain features that allow for drifting snow accumulation. These drifts could be 6-24 inches deep and up to 100 feet wide. Watch out for signs of wind-drifted snow, such as pillow-shaped deposits, and avoid those slopes.

Outside of the wind zone, the new snow will still be reactive. Instabilities could occur at the interface with the old snow surface or within storm snow itself.

Any avalanches, wind-drifted snow, or the new snow may travel fast and far due to weak grains at the new snow, old snow interface. The Valentine's Day storm buried facets, weak stellars, and surface hoar on many slopes. Yesterday, Drew headed to 10,420' to investigate this layer and found weak snow on almost all aspects. While this layering was noticeable on north-facing slopes, there was no observed cracking or collapsing. On east-facing slopes, collapsing was obvious and primarily occurred on facets and small-diameter surface hoar associated with a buried 2cm melt-freeze crust. It's expected that this layering will settle in a few days but could remain active under any stress, whether from wind or snow. Due to this weak interface, remote triggering an avalanche from a distance remains possible.

UAC Staff's recent observation from Pole Line Pass describes some of these conditions.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The Persistent Weak Layer (PWL) avalanche problem is moving in the right direction as more snow is added to the snowpack, and the weak layer continues to gain strength. However, Thursday's avalanche into old, faceted snow at a Cottonwood resort indicates that the problem still exists in isolated areas. If an avalanche were to be triggered in the PWL, it would be 4-6 feet deep and well over a hundred feet wide.

Due to the uncertainty and the potential size of avalanches failing in the PWL, I will continue to avoid steep, northerly slopes at mid and upper elevations.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

With today's clear skies and warm temperatures, the bright Utah sun will cause the cold snow to start shedding on solar-facing aspects (southeast-south-west). Watch for snow falling off rocks and avoid steep gully features as the day warms up. Move away from steep slopes when the snow gets wet and shows signs like rollerballs, wet sluffs, or cornice breaks. Plan a safe exit route back to your car.

Rooflines still holding snow may start shedding today. Be aware of children playing or adults shoveling solo or working around the house, as they are the most vulnerable to roof slides.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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