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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 21, 2024
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger remains on steep slopes facing W-N-E at all elevations. Deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches involving a buried persistent weak layer are likely in these areas.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing SW-S-SE at all elevations. Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible.
A very weak, and unstable snowpack has developed and this situation is likely to be with us for awhile. Cultivate the mindset that avalanche terrain is off limits and keep your slope angles less than 30 degrees.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. The surface is snow packed on dirt. AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming: Trails were last groomed on Friday and they saw a lot of traffic yesterday.
A huge shout out to those who participated in our Backcountry 101 class! And thanks to Moab Gear Trader for their generous sponsorship!
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 2" 72 Hour Snow 2" Season Total Snow 83" Base Depth at Gold Basin 38"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SE 5-15 G 20 Temp 27˚ F
Weather
Southwest flow and a broad low pressure system will bring periods of light snowfall to the mountains over the next few days. The greatest chance will be today through Monday with up to 5" possible. By Wednesday, the trough moves east with the next smallish looking system moving in Thursday - Friday. Today look for cloudy skies, light snow showers, and light to moderate SW winds. High temps at 10,000' will be in the upper 20's.
General Conditions
Light refreshes do make a difference and you can still find soft snow for turning and riding on sheltered, shady aspects. In our Backcountry 101 class yesterday we continued to experience red flag signs of instability such as cracking and whumphing on northerly aspects at lower elevations. Stability tests also remain reactive. Sam Van Wetter confirms in this observation. Travis Nauman was out stomping around on lower elevation westerly aspects and confirmed that the problem is alive and well in those areas. Read his observation here. The bottom line is that we have a widespread persistent weak layer on all aspects and elevations. The danger is greatest on steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects, but avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees on all aspects remains the only safe strategy right now.
Check out this video where Backcountry 101 students got to experience first hand the signs of an unstable snowpack:
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Reports of natural activity continue to trickle in. Natural slides likely occurred last Sunday or Monday. The photo below from Sam Van Wetter shows an avalanche on a due north aspect at a fairly low elevation of around 10,400'. From the looks of it, it failed on the December Drought layer before stepping down to weak facets near the ground. Avalanches such as this remain primed for a human trigger.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A slab of cohesive snow now exists above a persistent weak layer of faceted snow on all aspects and elevations. Collapsing and whumphing continue to be widespread. This red flag sign of instability demonstrates how easily the slab fails under a person's weight. On northerly facing slopes, thick hard slabs of wind-drifted snow rest on top of this weak layer and they are hanging in the balance just waiting for a trigger. Once triggered, these avalanches will break deep and wide, and will be un-survivable. On southerly aspects stabilty tests also demonstrate slab failure with propagation. This is unusual for us. These avalanches are more stubborn to trigger, and won't be quite as large, but make no mistake, they are not to be trifled with. Avoidance of slopes steeper than 30 degrees is the only safe strategy right now.
The video below illustrates unstable conditions with a slab failing on a weak layer on a SE aspect. An extended column test produced results of ECTP23.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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