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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, January 5, 2024
This morning, the avalanche danger is LOW across the Logan Zone, but heavy snowfall will cause the danger to rise to MODERATE later today. Heightened conditions will develop on drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes and in areas where significant accumulations of new snow overload weak surface snow that is widespread and found at all elevations.
Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, especially in drifted terrain and on slopes steeper than 30° that receive significant accumulations (6” or more) today.
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Weather and Snow
Snow is falling in the Bear River Range this morning. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 2 inches of new snow overnight. There is 41” of total snow and it’s 20° F.
Winds increased overnight and are blowing from the west-southwest at 17 mph with gusts close to 30 mph at the 9500' Paris Peak weather station, where it’s a chilly 12° F.
Snow will fall across the Logan Zone today, and snowfall could be heavy at times. Expect 8500' high temperatures near 21° F. Winds will blow from the west at 15 to 20 mph along the high ridges, and wind chill values will be as low as 1. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches is possible in favored upper-elevation terrain.
More snow is expected tomorrow, especially tomorrow night when 6 to 10 inches could accumulate up high. Snow is expected to continue and will be heavy at times during and through the upcoming work week as a series of winter storms impact the region.
If this forecast pans out, we expect alluring powder conditions and, potentially, a severe increase in avalanche danger, with very weak surface snow widespread across the mountains of Northern Utah.
Today's powder will accumulate on widespread weak surface snow, consisting of recrystallized or faceted snow and glistening feathers of surface hoar that plague most shady slopes at all elevations. The new snow will not bond well to the weak old snow surface. Avalanches will become increasingly possible as the fresh powder accumulates on slopes steeper than 30° and drifts into avalanche starting zones.
Shallow, early-season conditions exist, and hitting rocks or down trees is a significant consideration.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported recently in the Logan Zone.
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As fresh snow accumulates and is drifted by winds blowing from the west, it will be possible to trigger small soft slab avalanches of wind-drifted new snow.
  • Watch for and avoid fresh and forming drifts close to ridgelines or in and around terrain features like gullies, sub-ridges, mid-slope breakovers, and cliff bands.
  • Dry, loose avalanches and shallow storm slabs will be increasingly possible on slopes steeper than 30° as new snow accumulates on widespread preexisting weak surface snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We expect the avalanche danger to increase significantly in the backcountry in the coming days. Weak, sugary, or faceted surface snow is widespread across the zone, and it will likely become a nasty, persistent weak layer when it is buried by a series of storms beginning this weekend.
Additional Information
Weak surface snow consisting of surface hoar and near surface facets found at low elevations in the Bear River Range on Thursday
Sugary, faceted snow plagues the entire snowpack where the snow is shallow.
Always follow safe travel protocols on or under slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners.
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place.
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter any signs of instability, like recent avalanches, audible collapses (whumpfs), or cracking in drifted snow.
Two new weather stations are found in the Logan Zone this season. The Paris Peak Weather Station (available HERE) and the Card Canyon Weather Station (available HERE)
We checked on our new Paris Peak weather station on Saturday. It's looking good and working well, giving us real-time weather, including relevant ridgetop wind information. For more information on what we found in the Bloomington Canyon Area last weekend, check out our observation HERE.
General Announcements
  • For all questions on forecasts, education, KBYG, events, online purchases, or fundraising: call 801-365-5522.
  • To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry: go HERE
  • Read Mark's blog about electromagnetic interference of avalanche transceivers HERE.
    We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
    This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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