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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, January 4, 2024
The avalanche danger is generally LOW. Backcountry travelers should watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features in extreme terrain. Loose snow sluffs, and shallow soft slabs of wind drifted snow may be encountered.
The current snowpack is very weak and there are a variety of slick surfaces about. Anticipate dangerous conditions to develop when significant snow arrives.
The snowpack is still very shallow and rocks, logs, and stumps are a very real hazard right now.
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Road Conditions: The road is plowed but the surface remains soft. AWD with good tires are required.
Grooming: Gold Basin was last groomed on Friday. Gavin tuned up the Geyser Pass Road yesterday.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow 1" 72 Hour Snow 1" Season Total Snow 43" Base Depth at Gold Basin 24"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NE 15-20 Temp 20˚ F
Weather
A loosely organized surface low working its way across AZ will bring light snow to the mountains this morning. 1"-2" are possible. Most snowfall should occur before noon. High temps at 10,000' will be in the mid 20's, and winds from the NE will blow in the 15-20 mph range along ridgetops. Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with a potentially more potent system arriving Sunday-Monday.
General Conditions
The snow surface consists of a variety of character building conditions with wind damage being the predominant theme. Above treeline and in exposed areas you'll find textured surfaces, breakable crusts, and hard, slick windboard. In sheltered areas, the snowpack is loose, weak, and faceted to the ground. None but the most textured surfaces will provide a good bond for incoming cold snow. This first round of snow will not cause the danger to rise much although may see a few surface sluffs, or some shallow, but sensitive soft slabs of wind drifted snow in very steep terrain. If the Sunday system pans out as hoped, expect the avalanche danger to rise quickly.
The snowpack is still very shallow and rocks, logs, and stumps are a real hazard right now. Low angle meadows are still your best bet right now if you are looking to make any turns.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Check out this video from Dave Garcia for a snowpack summary looking ahead to this weekend's incoming storm.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Overall, the avalanche danger is LOW, and backcountry travelers should exercise normal caution. Be on the lookout for loose snow sluffing, or shallow, but sensitive soft slabs of wind drifted snow in steep terrain. With a much hoped for pattern change on the horizon, be ready for changing and rapidly rising avalanche danger.
  • Carry a beacon, shovel, probe, and know how to use it
  • Only expose one person at a time to avalanche terrain
  • Keep eyes on your partners at all times
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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