Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Dave Kelly for
Saturday, March 25, 2023

New snow combined with increased wind speeds has created an unstable snowpack and the avalanche danger is HIGH on upper elevation slopes where wind-drifted and new snow soft slab avalanches 1-3' deep and 100-150' wide are likely. Travel in avalanche terrain is NOT RECOMMENDED. Mid and low-elevation slopes have a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger where careful snowpack evaluation and terrain selection will lead you directly to safer terrain and soft snow. Avoid steep slopes if you see signs of cracking or collapsing in the new snow.

There is plenty of great riding to be had on slopes under 30 degrees and not below or attached to steep terrain.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Special Announcements

We are in the process of finalizing a report about the March 9th avalanche fatality in the Uintas. Thank you for your patience, and we will publish the final report in coming days.

Thank you to everyone who donated to our Spring Campaign. We appreciate your support and look forward to creating new tools to help you stay safe in the backcountry.

Weather and Snow

This morning, under overcast skies, trailhead temperatures are in the teens ˚F. Winds are blowing from the south-southwest 15 gusting to 30 MPH. Overnight 1-3" of new snow fell. Storm totals range from 15-25" of snow with 1.5-3" of water weight.

For today, we are looking at overcast skies with 1-3" of new snow forecasted. Temperatures will be 24-26 ˚F with winds blowing east-southeast 15 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines and westerly 25 gusting to 35 MPH at the 11,000' ridgelines. Wind speeds will drop through the day. Any hint of sun on steep rocky terrain will send new snow cascading down onto ice climbs and hiking trails.

Our partners at the National Weather Service have issued a Winter Storm Warning in effect until noon today.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday backcountry travelers reported sensitive soft slabs of new snow related to increased snowfall rates. There was a widespread natural cycle in both Cottonwood Canyons and I would imagine terrain in the Provo Area mountains had similar results during that time period. There are lots of observations of snowfall and the subsequent direct-action avalanche cycle HERE.

Hardesty and Wilson reported natural shallow soft slab avalanches in the area around Silver Lake.

Photo (Hardesty)

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Westerly winds continue to move snow around and form drifts that may avalanche 1-3' deep and 100-150' wide. These slabs will be most pronounced on leeward-facing slopes and in some areas above treeline you may see cross-loaded slopes. New snow will make it difficult to identify signs of wind-drifting.

CORNICES are a good sign that the slope below is or has been loaded by new snow. They are HUGE. Limit your exposure to ridgelines near cornices, and slopes below cornices. A cornice fall could trigger a much larger slab of wind-drifted snow below.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The amount of new snow during this storm increases your chances of triggering a soft slab avalanche 1-2' deep and failing on a density change in the top layers of the snowpack. Yesterday UAC Forecaster Drew found propagation within the new snow and a rain crust at lower elevations where they noted audible collapses most likely occurring on this crust/facet combination now buried under 2' or more of new snow at lower elevations. Signs of instability like cracking, and collapsing mean it's time to let the new snow settle out before committing to steep terrain.

Additional Information

Forecaster's Corner:

What does Acceptable Risk even mean?

Through an avalanche accident earlier this winter, Drew has been able to put together a clear example of what he believes defines acceptable risk. Read more on this HERE.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures