Forecast: Provo Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Tuesday morning, March 21, 2023

A MODERATE AVALANCHE DANGER exists in the mid and upper elevations.

You will be able to trigger both loose dry and soft slab avalanches in steep terrain today. Do not discount the possibility of triggering avalanches well off the ridgelines or on mid-slope breakovers, particularly on some east to south to west facing aspects.

Don't let powder fever get to you today. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of a close call today.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

The first storm of the week did its job yesterday with storm totals of 10-14" and up to 1.41" of snow water equivalent. Currently, skies are mostly cloudy with temperatures in the teens and low 20s. Winds are light to moderate from the west. Along the highest ridgelines, they're averaging 20-25mph with gusts to 45. We'll have briefly clearing skies with clouds streaming in from the southwest.

We have just a moment to catch our breath before the next series of storms. A powerful storm system pushes down the door this afternoon through early Thursday that'll bring significant snowfall along with moderate to strong winds from the southwest. A rough forecast for snow totals is 15-25". This is yet another atmospheric river event that will initially favor Provo, although temperatures will be cooler than the previous two events.

A quick hitting cold front (with additional snowfall) arrives Friday with temperatures plummeting to near 0°F. Unsettled through the weekend with a break for a few days early next week. Whew!

Recent Avalanches

We didn't have any reports from Provo but in the central Wasatch, avalanche conditions became very reactive and touchy within the new snow with the passing of the cold front yesterday afternoon. Many observers reported some naturaling (Staples photo) on the steepest slopes and easy to trigger shallow loose dry and soft slab avalanches on a variety of aspects and elevations.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

12-18" thick soft slabs of wind drifted snow will be found along the upper elevations and to the lee of many mid-elevation ridglines. They will be most prevalent on north to east to south facing slopes and reactive to ski cuts. Look for smooth and rounded pillowy whales around terrain features. Cracking and collapsing that was evident yesterday during peak instability may not be evident today. Still, I would approach steep wind drifted terrain as if triggering a fresh soft slab is possible. What's my plan?

CORNICES are not to be messed with. They are as big as I can remember and they can crush a skier or rider that either falls over the edge with one.....or crush a skier or rider below.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Loose dry sluffs and shallow soft slabs in the new snow can be triggered in steep terrain of all aspects in the mid and upper elevations. I suspect they'll run fast and far on the underlying bed surfaces of slick sun and wind crusts or loose faceted grains.

Additional Information

Forecaster's Corner:

What does Acceptable Risk even mean?

Not long ago, I was asked this question by another long-time avalanche professional after sitting in one of our annual fall Snow and Avalanche Workshops. In an avalanche accident this winter, I found - what I believe - to be a clear example. Read more on this HERE.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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