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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Thursday morning, January 12, 2023
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found on steep, upper elevation slopes, especially in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered wind drifts, along with more dangerous slides breaking to weak layers now buried deep in our snowpack are LIKELY.
Mid elevation terrain is right on the cusp where a rogue piece of snow will break deeper and wider than you might anticipate. Expect MODERATE avalanche danger on steep, shady mid elevation slopes where human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Generally LOW avalanche danger is found on south facing terrain at and below treeline and low elevation shady slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Huge thanks to our good friends and avalanche gospel sharing partners, Young Power Sports, for opening their doors after hours and hosting last nights Know Before You Go presentation delivered brilliantly by long time avy snowpro Daniel Turner.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- High clouds drift through the region in the wake of this weeks moisture rich storm which pasted the eastern front with a thick coat of white paint, delivering just over 3' of snow with 3.5" of H2O. West and southwest winds mellowed significantly late yesterday afternoon and continue in that spirit, blowing 10-20 mph along the high ridges at o'dark thirty. Temperatures are crisp and register in the single digits and low teens. On a go-anywhere base, the Uinta's are white, the range is phat, and riding conditions are as good as it gets.
Forecast- A few days of short-lived drying are on tap and we'll see partly cloudy skies, temperatures rising into the low 30's, as southwest winds remain well-behaved, blowing in the teens and 20's near the high peaks. Overnight lows dip into the teens.
Futurecast- Cut and paste weather for Friday, with a few flurries on tap for Saturday. More significant storminess returns for late Sunday.
Huge thanks for all the great obs streaming in from the eastern front. Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Despite all the new snow, no significant recent avy activity... but a slew of Uinta avy obs are found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's increasingly clear... there's a light at the end of the Persistent Weak Layer tunnel-
Let's face it, our November problem child (the weak, sugary, PWL) is now buried deeply in the snowpack. In fact, with total snow depths measuring a colossal 200 cm, just locating the grainy layer in our snowpits requires a mini excavator... and we know how hard those are to find at the nearby rental yard.
So... is it open season? Man, I think we are getting so close and the recent series of storms is a huge test. We've stacked up a tremendous amount of additional weight, the snowpack appears Herculean and unreactive, and we're not seeing avalanches failing on the midpack weak layer. Yep, all this suggests the chances of triggering deep dangerous avalanches is becoming less likely over time. But here's where the rubber hits the road... as I begin stepping into big terrain I know it's not entirely impossible the trigger a deep slide... all I need to do is find one weakness in the pack, pull the rug out from underneath, and the entire roof crashes down on me. In a low probability/high consequence scenario, now is the time to start stepping out cautiously, gathering as much snowpack intel as we can along the way. I'm gonna stomp on small steep test slopes and road cuts and see how they're reacting before setting my sights on a big, committing line. And if it isn't feeling right, I'll pump the brakes and recalibrate, because with all the great mid and lower angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A few wind drifts sensitive to our additional weight linger on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Lose the wind and you lose the problem.
Additional Information
Such a rock star! Huge thanks to Joey Manship for all the hard work and Herculean efforts getting the Nobletts Beacon Park up and running. Located on the northeast corner of the parking lot, give it a go and practice your rescue skills on a down day, or while you wait for your crew before a ride.
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:33 on Thursday January 12th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Friday January 13th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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