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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Wednesday morning, January 11, 2023
We're got two distinct avalanche dragons today... one that predictably breaks at or below our feet. And one that gets quickly out of hand, failing into weak layers, now buried deep in our snowpack-
In either case... CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes, especially in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Natural and human triggered wind drifts, along with more dangerous slides breaking to weak layers now buried deep in our snowpack are LIKELY.
Low elevation terrain gets in on the act where you'll find a rogue piece of snow will break deeper and wider than you might anticipate. Expect MODERATE avalanche danger on steep, shady low elevation slopes where human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Generally LOW avalanche danger is found on south facing terrain at and below treeline and that's where I'm headed to avoid the avalanche dragon, stay warm in the sun, and work on my winter tan.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast- More knee-high then over-the-head, the last wave of snow slides through the region early this morning delivering an additional 10" of low density, chin tickling fluff. Buzz-killing westerly winds ramped up around 01:30 this morning and currently blow 25-40 mph along the high ridges. Temperatures cooled off nicely at the turn off the new day and currently register in the teens and low 20's. Last nights refresh will go a long way to hide yesterday's upside down, inverted snow and wind sheltered terrain is gonna be the ticket.
Forecast- Our robust cold front is moving east of the area as I type at o'dark thirty, so the heaviest snow has ended, but we'll still see a few scattered snow showers this morning. High temperatures barely claw into the mid 20's and crash into single digits overnight. West and northwest blow in the 30's and 40's, but decrease as the day wares on.
Futurecast- High pressure builds for Thursday into Friday, resulting in a temporary lull. More storminess returns over the weekend and into early next week.
Huge thanks for all the great obs streaming in from the eastern front. Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday afternoon, Mark took a quick spin around Iron Mountain finding a hyper-sensitive, yet very shallow natural avalanche cycle, like this road cut in the image above.
Failing on a density inversion within the new storm snow, not a huge threat, but kinda fun to snow-nerd out on
No other significant recent avy activity... but a slew of Uinta avy obs are found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Encouraging news as we climb out of the trenches...
Our snowpack is becoming deep and more solid with each additional layer of insulating snowfall and that's great news! And while the chances of triggering a deep dangerous avalanche are becoming less likely over time it's not entirely impossible... all we need to do is find one weakness in the pack, pull the rug out from underneath, and the entire roof crashes down on us. No... it's not like the walls are caving in and that'll make today that much more deceptive. Now is the time to start stepping out cautiously, gathering as much snowpack intel we can along the way. Stomp on small steep test slopes and road cuts and see how they're reacting before setting your sights on a big, committing line. And if it isn't feeling right, pump the brakes and recalibrate your objectives, because with all the great mid and lower angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,662') clearly showing recent trends with wind
Winds are all over the map and there's no shortage of snow available to blow around and form fresh drifts that'll react to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, I wouldn't be too surprised to find drifting around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In either case, the key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum. Lose the wind and you lose the problem.
Additional Information
Such a rock star! Huge thanks to Joey Manship for all the hard work and Herculean efforts getting the Nobletts Beacon Park up and running. Located on the northeast corner of the parking lot, give it a go and practice your rescue skills on a down day, or while you wait for your crew before a ride.
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:31 on Wednesday January 11th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Thursday January 12th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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