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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Thursday morning, January 5, 2023
We are so close to turning the corner, but we're not there just yet. Let's continue pumping the brakes and not stomping on the gas pedal because any avalanche that fails on weak, sugary, midpack snow is gonna be deep and dangerous, instantly ruining your day.
Becoming less widespread, CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger still exists on steep, upper elevation slopes in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE. Pockety and a little more predictable, don't get surprised... steep, mid elevation terrain near treeline is a player as well. You'll find MODERATE avalanche danger with human triggered avalanches involving the New Years storm snow POSSIBLE on steep, shady slopes. LOW avalanche danger is found on all aspects below treeline.
My exit strategy and plan for mountain longevity? I'm playing mini golf!
Meaning... I'm keeping it super conservative and just starting to step out into steeper, lower elevation terrain (where the avy danger is LOW), but doing so on slopes with little to no consequence.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- High clouds drift into the region as a nearly full Wolf Moon makes the rounds to visit the other side of the planet. Current temperatures register in the teens and mid 20's, just about 10 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday morning. Southerly winds began bumping into the 20's and 30's at the turn of the new day and continue in that spirit at o'dark thirty. On a go-anywhere base, riding and turning conditions are as good as they get!
Forecast- Look for mostly cloudy skies with a few scattered snow showers developing throughout the day, but a storm on our doorstep really kicks into gear overnight. In the meantime, west and southwest winds ramp into the 30's and 40's later today as temperatures climb into the upper 20's.
Futurecast- Snowfall increases overnight and especially Friday with 5"-10" a solid bet by closing bell. Nothing like the last colossal event, but a nice refresh with warm, dry weather settling in for Saturday.
Yesterday's trip to Currant Creek Peak for some weather station maintenance lines up Joey Manship's great TRIP REPORT... the Uinta's are phat, white, and pasted!
Mark was in the Mirror Lake zone Monday and has an excellent trip report
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Not recent, but Micheal J visited the Hoyt Peak environs yesterday and has an outstanding writeup off the nearly historic avalanche cycle that kicked off the New Year with a bang, tearing out old trees from that rugged neighborhood.
Additional avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The good news-
Like in the viddy above, in many places the snowpack is very deep, trending towards equilibrium, as it adjusts to the big New Years storm which delivered colossal water numbers and huge snow amounts. In fact, the snowpack is a lot like us in the winter... it likes thick, warm layers of insulation. And of course, our recent storm is a perfect fit.
The jury is still deliberating news-
Let's face it, our snowpack is still in its teenage years. And while it's becoming more predictable, it can also come back to life instantly, overreacting at a split second, coming off the rails with a little provocation. Remember... persistent weak layers (PWL) just like we're dealing with in the mid portion of our snowpack, are called persistent because they need some time to become comfortable in their own skin.
The hint at a verdict news-
Here's what's encouraging... stability tests along with the shear amount of new snow and water weight suggest we are headed in the right direction and in just a short time I think we'll be good to go. However, we're not there just yet and now is the time to continue pumping the brakes and exercising a bit of patience. The short term pain is gonna lead to long term gain. With all the great low angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Found on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, a few fresh wind drifts formed overnight and they'll be sensitive to our additional weight today. While it's becoming more the exception than the rule, once triggered, a seemingly manageable wind drift may break to weaker layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack as it crashes down onto the slope below, producing an avalanche that quickly gets out of hand. Lose the wind and you lose the problem. The key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:47 on Thursday January 5th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Friday January 6th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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