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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Friday morning, January 6, 2023
We are so close to turning the corner, but we're not there just yet. Let's continue pumping the brakes and not stomping on the gas pedal because any avalanche that fails on weak, sugary, midpack snow is gonna be deep and dangerous, instantly ruining your day.
CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found on steep, upper elevation slopes in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Natural avalanches are POSSIBLE, human triggered avalanches LIKELY. Pockety and a little more predictable, don't get surprised... steep, mid elevation terrain near treeline is a player as well. You'll find MODERATE avalanche danger with human triggered avalanches involving the New Years storm snow POSSIBLE on steep, shady slopes. LOW avalanche danger is found on all aspects below treeline.
My exit strategy... I'm playing mini golf!
Meaning, I'm keeping it super conservative and just starting to step out into steeper, lower elevation terrain (where the avy danger is LOW), but doing so on slopes with little to no consequence.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- A big, bright, Wolf Moon hides behind thick clouds and light snow is falling, but so far the storm is a bit of an under-performer, delivering just a couple inches overnight. However, southerly winds blowing in the 20's and 30's have been steadily partying all night and continue in that spirited spirit this morning. Temperatures register in the teens and mid 20's. On a go-anywhere base, riding and turning conditions are as good as they get!
Forecast- Look for mostly cloudy skies with a solid shot of snow still in the queue and headed our way in the next few hours. Winds shift to the west by sunrise and blow in the 30's near the high peaks and temperatures don't vary much from where we're at this morning. Snow tapers off late this afternoon and I'm still cautiously optimistic we stack up 8" by closing bell.
Futurecast- Warm, dry weather is on tap for Saturday with another small shot of snow slated for Sunday. A more significant storm tees up for midweek.
Yesterday, Mark, Joey, and Weston D took to the North Slope, rode hard, and covered lotsa ground. A great writeup from this solid crew is found HERE.
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Local avy-savvy snow-pro, forecaster extraordinaire, but more importantly, wonderful human, Bill Nalli checks in from Upper Weber Canyon and reports... "Southwest wind picked up overnight Wed 1/4 and increased into the mid 30's at the most exposed ridgelines by early morning. It only took about 5-6 hours of this wind to add a new load big enough to trigger this slide. A significant sign that the lingering PWL problem is still alive and well, even if it's gotten more stubborn and difficult to trigger. A couple of trends were noting are that most recent big avalanches are failing in the alpine steepest terrain (39 deg and above) as well as very low on the slope along steep gully walls."
Additional avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The good news-
Mark Staples most excellent viddy above, very accurately describes our current snowpack setup. In many places the snowpack is very deep, trending towards equilibrium, as it adjusts to the big New Years storm which delivered colossal water numbers and huge snow amounts. In fact, the snowpack is a lot like us in the winter... it likes thick, warm layers of insulation. And of course, our recent storm is a perfect fit.
The jury is still deliberating news-
Let's face it, our snowpack is still in its teenage years. And while it's becoming more predictable, it can also come back to life instantly, overreacting at a split second, coming off the rails with a little provocation. Remember... persistent weak layers (PWL) just like we're dealing with in the mid portion of our snowpack, are called persistent because they need some time to become comfortable in their own skin.
And yes, there's a hint at a verdict news-
Here's what's encouraging... stability tests along with the shear amount of new snow and water weight suggest we are headed in the right direction and in just a short time I think we'll be good to go. However, we're not there just yet and now is the time to continue pumping the brakes and exercising a bit of patience. The short term pain is gonna lead to long term gain. With all the great low angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
This image from Wednesday clearly illustrates a seemingly manageable wind drift breaking to weaker layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack as it crashes down onto the slope below.
Found on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, fresh wind drifts continued forming overnight and they'll be sensitive to our additional weight today. The key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum. Lose a little elevation, you lose the wind, and you lose the problem.... done, done, and done :)
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:47 on Friday January 6th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Saturday January 7th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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