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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Tuesday morning, January 3, 2023
Good news... the snowpack is slowly adjusting to the big storm and soon it's gonna be open season. Bad news... we're not there just yet and any avalanche that breaks to weak, sugary, midpack snow is gonna be deep, dangerous, and unsurvivable.
HIGH avalanche danger is found on steep, upper elevation slopes in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY. Don't get surprised... steep, mid elevation terrain is a player as well and you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger with human triggered avalanches PROBABLE on steep, shady slopes. MODERATE avalanche danger is found on steep, low elevation slopes where human triggered avalanches involving the New Years storm snow are POSSIBLE, but they'll be more pockety and more predictable.
Where to ride today? You can have a blast carving deep trenches or meadow skipping in big open terrain with no overhead hazard, simply meaning... no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
My State of the Snowpack prezo scheduled for Wednesday Jan. 4th at PC Library is being rescheduled for a later date. I will loop you in once we establish new time and date.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- A little wave of moisture slid through the region last night, delivering a couple traces of very low density snow across the range. Temperatures are in the single digits and low teens. Windy Peak, the center of our Uinta weather station network, is down and I'm flying blind. But looking at nearby ridgetop wind data, I think west and northwest winds blow in the 20's along the high peaks.
Forecast- Look for scattered snow showers with a couple inches of low density snow stacking up throughout the day. Westerly winds blow in the 20's along the high ridges with a few gusts to 30 mph near the high peaks. High temperatures climb into the upper teens and low 20's, while overnight lows dip into the single digits.
Futurecast- Dry and warming for Wednesday and Thursday with another solid shot of moisture lining up for Friday.
Mark was in the Mirror Lake zone yesterday and has an excellent trip report, suggesting... the Uinta's are fat, white, and pasted. Seek out wind sheltered terrain and you'll be greeted with ridiculously deep snow where Trenchtown Rocks!
Ted's been in the Gold Hill zone and reports a phat, white, North Slope. His most excellent writeup and insight are found HERE.
Meanwhile, Micheal J visited lower Weber Canyon and has a great report HERE.
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Visibility has been less than ideal, but no significant avalanche activity reported since New Years Eve
Additional avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The good news-
The big New Years storm delivered colossal water numbers and huge snow amounts which adds thick, warm layers of insulation to our snowpack.
The flake news-
Weak, sugary, surface layers can develop very quickly... in fact, sometimes in just a matter of a few hours. However, deeper persistent weak layers (PWL) just like we're dealing with in the mid portion of our snowpack, need some time to change and become comfortable in their own skin. The good news is... stability tests along with the shear amount of new snow and water weight suggest we are headed in the right direction and in just a short time I think we'll be good to go. However, we're not there just yet and now is the time to pump the brakes and exercise a bit of patience. The short term pain is gonna lead to long term gain. With all the great low angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Fresh drifts formed all around the compass and they'll be sensitive to our additional weight today. Here's where it gets tricky because once initiated, a seemingly manageable wind drift may break to weaker layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack as it crashes down onto the slope below, producing an avalanche that quickly gets out of hand. Lose the wind and you lose the problem. The key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:41 on Tuesday January 3rd, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Wednesday January 4th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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