Join us at our 2nd Annual Blizzard Ball
Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Monday morning, January 2, 2023
There's no reason to mess around, this is the real deal, especially on the south half of the range from Currant Creek to Strawberry. Any avalanche triggered is gonna be deep, dangerous, and unsurvivable. Make no mistake, because your life depends on it... these are tree snapping, bone crushing, not come home to our family kinda slides-
HIGH avalanche danger is found on all steep, mid and upper elevation slopes. The danger is most pronounced in the wind zone at and above treeline, in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Both human triggered and natural avalanches are VERY LIKELY. Don't get surprised... low elevation terrain is a player as well and you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger with human triggered avalanches LIKELY on steep slopes.
Where to ride today? You can have a blast carving deep trenches or meadow skipping in big open terrain with no overhead hazard, simply meaning... no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
The avalanche danger is HIGH and an AVALANCHE WARNING is in effect from 6AM MST this morning to 6 AM MST Tuesday for the mountains of northern Utah and southeast Idaho.
This AVALANCHE WARNING is for most mountains in Utah and southeast Idaho, including the Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Range, Manti-Skyline, Fish Lake Region, La Sal and Abajo Mountains of southeastern Utah, Pavant Range, Tushar Range, and Cedar City area mountains.
Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on many slopes and may be triggered at a distance. Please stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
Special Announcements
Didn’t get what you want for Christmas? Do your loved ones simply give you money for the holidays and say “Go buy something for yourself?” Support the UAC and get a great gift for yourself or your loved one at our Holiday Auction. The auction closes at 8:00 PM MT on January 2, 2023
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- The storm keeps chugging away, doing the Southside Shuffle, delivering colossal water numbers and dense, heavy snow for the Daniels/Strawberry area. Looks like an additional 1.3" H2O and 12" snow, whilst the North Slope picks up the scraps with .90" H2O and 8" snow. In either case the Uinta's are fat, white, and pasted. Temperatures register in the teens and low 20's while northeast winds blow 10-15 mph along the high ridges. Recent winds patted down the fresh snow in our big open slopes, but lose a little elevation, seek out wind sheltered terrain, and you'll be greeted with ridiculously deep snow where Trenchtown Rocks!
Forecast- Look for scattered snow showers with a couple inches of low density snow stacking up throughout the day. Variable winds blow in the 20's along the high ridges, but decrease as the day wares on. High temperatures don't vary much from where we're at this morning, while overnight lows dip into the teens.
Futurecast- Hit or miss snow showers through Tuesday with a storm developing for the latter half of the work week.
Windy Peak plastered! Thanks to PC Cats for the heroic efforts to keep our Uinta weather station network humming along.
Ted's been in the Gold Hill zone and reports a phat, white, North Slope. His most excellent writeup and insight are found HERE.
Meanwhile, Micheal J visited lower Weber Canyon and has a great report HERE.
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
A thump delivered in the right spot on a steep northeast facing slope at 9,800' in Upper Weber Canyon Saturday, produces a sizable slide breaking 4' deep x 300' wide and 700' vertical. Snow-pro extraordinaire, Andy Nassetta shown here on the bed surface, confirms this avalanche failed on the Nov. facets (PWL) and clearly illustrates the size and scope of our current avalanche problem.
Additional avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Snowpit profiles, stability tests, and the biggest clue to avalanches... avalanches, all reveal the mid pack PWL is guilty until proven otherwise.
Avalanche conditions are deceptively tricky and here's why-
I don't think we'll see widespread natural avalanche activity today and that's what makes our setup so dangerous right now. The hazard won't be in yer face. Persistent weak layers (PWL) just like we're dealing with right now, need a little provocation like us to roll along and kick the legs out from underneath. Often it's where the slab is thinner and that's the spot we can collapse the slope and irritate the weak layer. In fact, a common theme with this type of avalanche dragon are slides triggered lower downslope than you might expect. And we all know... that's a super dangerous setup, because once the avalanche is initiated, the entire roof crashes down on us. With all the great low angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Fresh drifts formed all around the compass and they'll be sensitive to our additional weight today. Here's where it gets tricky because once initiated, a seemingly manageable wind drift may break to weaker layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack as it crashes down onto the slope below, producing an avalanche that quickly gets out of hand. Lose the wind and you lose the problem. The key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Just the sheer amount of storm snow requires our attention at all elevations, even down low. Yeah, we can trigger new snow avalanches which might involve more snow than we'd expect. So, if we're snowshoeing, hiking, or trail running we'll definitely want to avoid being on or under steep snow covered slopes.
Additional Information
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Please join me Wednesday Jan. 4th at 5:30 and we'll discuss what's going on with our snowpack, our avy danger, and how we can move around in the backcountry safely.
Issued at 03:51 on Monday January 2nd, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Tuesday January 3rd, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >