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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Tuesday morning, December 13, 2022
Don't get fooled into thinking we're only dealing with fluffy, new snow slides. Sunday's strong winds reshaped the landscape, creating deceptively dangerous avalanche conditions-
Today, you'll continue finding CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in mid and upper elevation terrain, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass in the wind zone at and above treeline. Human triggered avalanches breaking to weak, sugary, midpack snow are LIKELY. Lower elevation shady slopes with similar layering offer MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
LOW avalanche danger is found on low and mid elevation south facing slopes and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Wind sheltered terrain with no overhead hazard (meaning, no steep slopes above or adjacent to where I'm traveling) is the hot ticket. I've been finding excellent riding conditions and fun meadow skipping on mellow, wind sheltered slopes with no overhead hazard . Remember, don't get too throttle happy because it's still low tide and there's plenty of reef barely hidden underneath our recent storms. With a significant danger of hitting rocks, stumps, and other obstacles, you'll wanna tone it down today and don't let a buried treasure ruin your season.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Both Mirror Lake Highway and Wolf Creek Pass are closed for the season
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Late yesterday, a North Slope enhanced impulse delivered 5" snow with just .30" H2O (blower pow) while the south half of the range stands in line at the Studio 54 powder party hoping to get recognized. Under mostly cloudy skies, light snow showers fall and temperatures register in the single digits and low teens. Hardly a breath of wind for a good portion of Monday, but west-northwest winds bumped into the teens and low 20's around 01:00 this morning and that brings a windchill to -17 degrees along the high ridges. Riding and turning conditions are outstanding, though weekend winds worked the big open bowls, so today you'll wanna consider seeking out mid elevation, wind sheltered terrain for the best snow quality.
Forecast- Unsettled weather allows a few weak impulses to slide through the region today which stack up a couple inches of snow by sunset. High temperatures creep into the teens, whilst west-northwest winds blow in the 20's along the high peaks.
Futurecast- The song remains the same for Wednesday with scattered snow showers on tap and continued cold temperatures. Clearing weather is on tap to round out the work week.
Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avy activity to report, but a slew of Uinta obs are HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A pit profile from the Currant Creek zone shows exactly where the weaker, sugary, persistent weak layer (PWL) exists in the mid portion of our snowpack.
Good news-
Prior to Sunday nights storm, weak, sugary faceted snow buried in the mid portion of our snowpack was just getting comfortable in its own skin, adjusting to last weeks big storm, and the lack of recent avalanche activity suggested a slow turn towards stability... good news.
Bad news-
Southerly winds cranked over the weekend, not only changed the landscape, but also adding an additional layer of strong snow to our pre-existing snowpack. Problem is... all that strong snow rests on weaker, midpack snow (our problem child, the persistent weak layer or PWL) which formed during the mid November drought.
Troubling news-
Strong snow resting on weaker snow gives us a false sense of snow stability, because it feels solid and bomber underneath our skis, board, or sled. In fact, this combo often lures us well out onto steep slopes before weak layers fail, allowing avalanches to break well above us and the whole roof crashes down. So yes, I'm thinking not only about the snow I'm riding in, but also the snow I'm riding on. Here's where the rubber hits the road and what makes things tricky right now... any avalanche that fails near the midpack PWL , is gonna break deep and wide and it's gonna be dangerous.
Unless you take your shovel out, dig down and investigate a bit, you can easily get lulled into a false sense of snow stability because the snowpack has gained a substantial amount of buoyancy and will feel strong and solid underneath or skis, board, or sled.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
24 hour data dump from Lofty Lake Peak (11,186') clearly depicts the recent winds and break in the action.
Don't get lured into the thinking fresh snow is the only avalanche game in town. Cold, light, fluffy snow camouflages wind drifts formed over the weekend, making them hard to detect. Here's where it gets tricky... once initiated, this big brother version carries the possibility of snow breaking deeper and wider than we might expect. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, I'd also be on the look out for drifting around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In either case, you'll wanna look for and avoid any fat looking rounded pillow of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
Easily managed and avoided with terrain choices... lose the wind, you lose the problem and score great riding conditions to boot.
Additional Information
Sunday nights forecaster discussion ruminating over the currant snowpack setup
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:47 on Tuesday December 13th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Wednesday December 14th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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