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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Sunday morning, February 27, 2022
The danger for wet avalanches will rise toward CONSIDERABLE on east to south to west facing aspects today. Low elevation northerly aspects may also see some wet activity. Natural and human triggered avalanches are expected.
On west to north to east facing slopes, the danger for triggering pockety shallow soft slabs 1-2' deep is MODERATE. These may be triggered at a distance. Take cracking and collapsing as immediate warning signs.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Skies are clear with light westerly winds. Rapid warming aloft continued through the overnight hours and current mountain temps are in the mid-20s. With an inversion building, trailheads and basins remain in the single digits.
Skiing and riding conditions remain divine, though some solar aspects will have zipper sun crust this morning.
Clear skies this morning will give way to periods of cloud cover streaming in from the west. Winds will remain generally light from the west with slightly breezier conditions in the Ogden and Logan area mountains. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s along the ridgelines today and into the mid-30s down low.

Weak ridging will keep fair weather overhead through the week with mountain temperatures reaching into the 40s by mid/late week. A storm is forecast for Friday.
Recent Avalanches
A possible natural slab avalanche was spotted in what looks to be Big Springs or Bunnels fork below the Cascade ridgeline yesterday. It was on a steep northeast facing slope at 9500'. In upper Big Springs, a skier triggered a wind slab around a rocky terrain feature on a steep east facing slope. Further north, a skier triggered and was briefly caught in a solar warmed wind drift in the Silver Creek drainage at roughly 10,500'.
Elsewhere in the central Wasatch -
* A backcountry party ascending Tanners Gulch in Little Cottonwood Canyon yesterday morning experienced a very close call. Just before 8am, the party was at an elevation of 9500' when a natural sluff cascading down from above engulfed two of the three, carrying them 600' downhill. One was partially buried. Despite some bumps and bruises and lost gear, they were able to self-evacuate. Tanners Gulch is a very steep hourglass with a mile of starting zones between 10,700' and 11,100' that sits on the north side of Little Cottonwood Canyon. Their excellent write-up can be found HERE>
* Four more backcountry parties triggered shallow pockets of soft slab avalanches into the Jan/Feb PWL drought layer of facets 12-18" deep and 35' wide. Two of these were in White Pine of LCC, one was in upper Mineral Fork of BCC, and one was in Mill A Gulch of BCC. These were on north to east facing aspects between 9300' and 9800'. Cracking and collapsing into this layering was also noted in Neffs, Guardsman Pass, Beartrap, and Summit Park.
* A skier descending south below what looks to be Two Trees (just west of Cardiff Peak) in LCC triggered a size two wet loose slide that entrained a good bit of wet snow on the way down.
Terrain maps can be found on Wasatch Backcountry Skiing

Greg Gagne's Week in Review is published and can be found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dangerous natural and human triggered wet avalanches are expected today.
Rapidy warming temperatures and - initially - direct sun wil rapidly destabilize the recent 8-12" of storm snow on east then south then westerly facing aspects. These wet sluff and potentially wet slab avalanches will run fast and far on the slick underlying crusts with wet concrete-like debris piling up deeply in runout zones below. Pinwheels, rollerballs and damp sluffs will be early indicators of instability. Be very aware of changing conditions within the snow as it becomes damp and unstable - DO NOT OVERSTAY YOUR WELCOME ON THE STEEP SOLAR ASPECTS. Plan your day accordingly.
*This should be your guidance heading into the morning. The cloud cover streaming in from the west today provides uncertainty on how this will affect the snow surfaces. The mid and upper level clouds may shield the snow from the full blast of the sun; and/or the clouds may provide for "greenhousing". This may accentuate the wet activity even on some lower elevation northerly terrain.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You can still trigger pockety soft slab avalanches 1-2' deep on a PWL (persistent weak layer) of weak faceted grains.
The January/February drought resulted in very weak facets along the snow surfaces and it was clear that once it started snowing in earnest, we would have avalanches. The problem is that although it has snowed, it hasn't snowed in earnest, so that the avalanches, although widespread (pretty much all of the north part of the compass at all elevations) are relatively small and pockety. But relatively small and pockety can still kill you, especially if you're hungry for powder and especially if you're surprised by the avalanche, which is common whenever avalanches can be triggered at a distance.
My observation in Broads Fork on Friday looks at this more of this uncertainty in depth HERE.
While many people are finding pockets of unstable snow (a dozen in the past two days in the central Wasatch), many people are not.
What to Do With Uncertainty?
  • If the game is rigged, choose not to play. In other words, owing to the high uncertainty and the nature of the problem, choose low angle slopes with nothing steep above. We rode low angle northerly terrain on Friday and it was the best in two months.
  • Choose aspects that do not harbor the PWL: we know that northwest through east aspects harbor the PWL. West is uncertain and variable. Southwest to south to southeast do not harbor the PWL and these aspects will ride nearly as well today.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.