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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, February 23, 2022
Dangerous and tricky avalanche conditions exist!
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes near and above treeline that face the north half of the compass. New and wind drifted snow is piling up on a variety of old and weak snow surfaces and a variety of avalanche problems exist. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills. The danger is generally MODERATE on steep slopes facing the south side of the compass.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road has not been plowed. 6" of snow, drifts, and ruts exist. 4x4 required.
Grooming: Trails are covered in fresh snow.
Weather and Snow
6:00 a.m. weather data:
24 Hour Snow 4" 72 Hour Snow 10" Base Depth at Gold Basin 47" Wind SW 15-25 G35 Temp 15F
Another 4" fell during the day yesterday and no new snow fell overnight. SW winds increased yesterday afternoon/evening blowing in the 25-35 mph range with gusts into the low 40's. The next low pressure system is currently moving into our area and snowfall should start up again this morning. The GFS model has backed off significantly for the La Sals in particular, and as much as I hate to say it, is only showing 3"-5". The EC remains a little more in line with the NWS forecast of 5"-9" SW ridge top winds will continue to blow in the 15-25 mph range with gusts into the 30's, and high temps will be in the mid teens. The system tracks eastward tonight and we'll sunny skies tomorrow through the weekend.
NWS Weather Forecast for the La Sal Mountains
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snowpack
In my travels yesterday I observed emerging red flag signs of instability as the new snow piled up. These ranged from isolated areas of cracking, to loose snow sluffing, and blowing and drifting snow. The new snow has landed on a variety of surfaces from slick and hard, to heavily textured, to loose, weak, and faceted and you can feel all of these surfaces beneath your skis. This wide variety of underlying snow surfaces greatly affects how the new snow reacts and creates the likelihood for a variety of avalanche problems.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New and wind drifted snow has begun to pile up on a variety of old snow surfaces and faceted, weak layer combinations. The weakest snow can be found on sheltered, northerly aspects where the degree of near surface faceting was greatest. Branching out from there, a variety of crust/facet combinations can be found. The uneven and variable type of weakness makes things tricky, and as snow piles up it should be assumed that human triggered avalanches failing on a buried weak layer are likely.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable wind drifts up to 18" deep have developed along the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, near treeline and above, primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E-SE. are becoming more widespread and connected. Recent wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As snow continues to accumulate, human triggered avalanches within the new snow will become increasingly more likely. These will come in the form of either loose snow or sensitive soft slabs. We will also likely see some shallow, natural releases off some of the steep, high faces. Use test slopes to see how the new snow is reacting. In sheltered areas, where the underlying snow is heavily faceted, loose snow sluffs will gouge into the old sugary snow underneath. Suspect steep slopes that have more than about 8" of new snow, and practice sluff management techniques by moving out of the fall line if the snow starts moving.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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