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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, February 15, 2021
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST! New and wind drifted snow has stressed buried persistent weak layers to their breaking point and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near treeline and above on all aspects. On slopes that face NW-NE-SE deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches up to 4' deep remain very likely. Avalanches may break farther and wider than expected and signs of instability may not always be present. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills and know how to avoid avalanche terrain including locally connected, lower angle slopes and runout zones.
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Special Announcements
The accident report for the tragic avalanche that killed four skiers in Millcreek Canyon on Saturday, Feb 6, is complete. All were well-known members of the backcountry community and all of us at the UAC are deeply affected. Our deep and sincere condolences go out to the family and friends so affected by this accident.
The Geyser Pass Road will not be plowed until tomorow. Deep ruts and slick surfaces are found. 4x4 high clearance and possibly chains required.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) will be up in the next few days to groom. Deep snow will cover all trails today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 14" 72 Hour Snow 16" Base Depth in Gold Basin 49" Wind NW 15- 20 G30 Temp 4F
Surprisingly gorgeous weather reigned in the mountains yesterday with sunny skies, temps in the mid 20's, and moderate NW winds that mainly blew up high. They've bumped up a bit overnight and temps have plummeted into the single digits. Today look for increasing clouds, and light to moderate WSW winds as the next storm system moves into the region. Points north will be favored but we should see a few inches with snowfall beginning sometime this evening.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
Yesterday was the kind of day that dreams, or nightmares, were made of with lots of sunshine, fresh powder, and dangerous avalanche conditions. Almost 15" of new snow fell at more than 1.5" SWE (snow water equivalent) in a 12 hour period. Moderate SW winds blew and drifted snow for the majority of the storm on Saturday, dangerously overloading leeward slopes that have an underlying weak snowpack. Natural avalanche activity was surprisingly limited and most slopes have been left in a precarious balance. Don't let this situation fool you. Most slopes are at their tipping point and are ripe for a human trigger.
Recent Avalanches
In our travels yesterday we observed these two natural avalanches from a distance beneath the N Face of Mount Tukuhnikivatz in Red Snow Cirque. Somewhat "pockety" in nature, they nevertheless had crowns up to 4' deep and could have easily buried or killed someone. Human triggered avalanches such as this remain likely.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
New and wind drifted snow has dangerously stressed pre-existing slabs overriding buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow to their breaking point and human triggered avalanches remain likely today, especially on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass.
The photos below illustrates the classically poor snowpack structure that existed before this storm. Note the clearly defined fist to 4 finger hard slab on top of weak, sugary, facets. In other words - strong snow over weak snow. The additional load of new snow on top has created a dangerous, unstable situation.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Above treeline, shifting wind directions have deposited snow on all aspects and fresh, unstable drifts 15"-20" deep will likely be found today. On northerly aspects, fresh drifts have added additional stress to buried persistent weak layers, and once triggered they will likely produce deeper and even more dangerous avalanches. Avoid all steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches within the new snow remain possible on steep slopes on all aspects today. These may occur in the form of loose snow sluffs or cohesive soft slabs. On slopes facing the north half of the compass, storm snow has increased the likelihood of triggering a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Travel advice remains the same, avoid avalanche terrain or slopes steeper than 30 degrees.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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