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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, February 14, 2021
AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ARE DANGEROUS
Recent snow and wind are overloading our fragile snowpack and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE VERY LIKELY. In the wind zone, above and near treeline, the avalanche danger is HIGH especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass. Once triggered, today's avalanches have the potential to quickly get out of hand, breaking deep and wide, resulting in a dangerous slide.

CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger is found on mid elevation terrain where steep slopes are reaching their tipping point and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY.
At lower elevations below treeline and all south and southwest facing slopes, the danger is MODERATE.

Riding conditions continue improving and there's lots of great powder. Fortunately there's also plenty of terrain in the Uintas less than 30 degrees in steepness where avalanches won't happen. Make sure to also avoid being under steep slopes in avalanche runout zones.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Warning
What
THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA IS HIGH
When
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY
Where
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF MUCH OF THE STATE OF UTAH, INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...MANTI-SKYLINE PLATEAU...THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS....THE FISH LAKE REGION…PAHVANTS…TUSHARS…AND THE CEDAR CITY AREA MOUNTAINS.
Impacts
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
Special Announcements
The final report about an avalanche that killed four people last Saturday in upper Mill Creek Canyon in the central Wasatch Mountains is available HERE. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends and families involved.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Under mostly cloudy skies, snowfall continued overnight, stacking up an additional 6" of light fluff, pushing storm totals to just over a foot. I think the automated sno-tel sites might be slightly underestimating snow totals and I bet a few favored areas clock in closer to 16" in the past 24 hours. In either case, it'll be an in-yer-face, over-the-hood kinda day. Currently, temperatures are in the teens with single digits along the ridges. Northwest winds bumped into the 30's and 40's for a few hours right around dinnertime, but backed off at midnight and currently blow in the 20's along the high peaks.
Forecast-
Snow tapers off and we might even see a glimpse of the sun as the day progresses. High temperatures don't vary much from where we're at this morning with overnight lows in the single digits. Northwest winds remain reasonable, blowing in the 20's along the high peaks.
Futurecast-
A break in the action until Monday midmorning when a strong winter storm sets its sights on the state. Look for a good shot of snow developing by around lunchtime with gusty winds along the ridges. Storm totals around a foot seem reasonable by Tuesday morning.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
On Friday, Mark and Michael were near Moffit Peak and Gold Hill, where they triggered many collapses and shooting cracks which are the same as triggering an avalanche except that they aren't on slopes steep enough to slide. The photo below shows cracks in the snow in front of Mark's sled. Today, continue looking for these clues which are sometimes subtle and not easy to see, yet they're huge red flags to unstable snow.
Ski guides above Smith and Moorehouse Reservoir found similar conditions and loud thunderous collapses Friday as well.
Many large avalanches were triggered across the range last weekend including a near miss at Moffit Peak with an amazing viddy HERE.
Recent avalanche activity is found HERE.

More obs and trip reports found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Let's face it... many slopes throughout the range harbor layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow and it's found near the bottom of the snowpack (see photo below). On its own accord that's not a big deal, but when we add a cohesive slab on top (strong snow resting on weak snow), now we've got the ingredients coming together for dangerous avalanche conditions. In the wind zone, the slab is very hard and connected across large areas. On slopes sheltered from the wind, the slab is softer but still cohesive enough to produce a slide. In either case, this combo is found mostly on mid and upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass and many slopes just wait for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath. Here's what makes matters complicated... you can trigger avalanches by simply riding under a steep slope, so part of today's avalanche strategy must include staying off and out from under steep terrain.
The viddy below demonstrates how there's no structure or base to our snowpack.
The photo below clearly shows the weak faceted snow near the ground. There is also a weak layer of facets in the middle of the snowpack on which avalanches can also fracture.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent winds (see video below) had no problem whipping up stiff wind drifts which will react to our additional weight, and you'll find them on the leeward side of ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded, piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum. And remember- triggering even a small wind drift offers the potential to quickly get out of hand if that piece of snow breaks into deeper buried weak layers as it crashes onto the slope below.
The video below illustrates Fridays winds at the top of Double Hill.
Additional Information
Last week, Andy, Joey, and I set up the avalanche beacon training park at the Nobletts trailhead. There is also one at the Bear River Trailhead that Ted Scroggin set up. These beacon parks have pre-buried beacons that you can turn on/off with a control panel. It only takes a few minutes to refresh your beacon searching skills at one of these places.
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Monday, February 15th.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.