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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, February 7, 2021
VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. The snowpack has been teetering near it's breaking point for some time, and Friday's snowfall combined with strong westerly winds pushed it over the edge.
It's very simple today, the avalanche danger is HIGH above treeline, and CONSIDERABLE near treeline. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Any slide triggered will result in a deep, dangerous, and potentially unsurvivable avalanche.
Below treeline, human triggered avalanches are possible and the avalanche danger is MODERATE.
Here's your exit strategy- Simply stick with slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness where avalanches generally don't occur, but make sure there's no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding. The Uinta's have lots of this fun rolling terrain and big open meadows.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We are filled with grief to report four fatalities in the Wilson avalanche today. Well known people in the community. We will visit the site today and provide more detailed information as it comes to light. A preliminary report is found HERE.
Please avoid this terrain today to maintain a safe environment for SAR and UAC staff.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Skies are clear and temperatures in the teens and mid 20's, but the bigger news are the winds. West and southwest winds blew steadily all night, averaging 25-35 mph, but increased into the 60's and 70's right around dinnertime. They tapered off somewhat early this morning, yet still hum along the ridges in the 40-50 mph range. No new snow to report in the past 24 hours, but Friday's storm was good to the eastern front, delivering 10" of medium density snow, vastly improving the riding and turning conditions.
Forecast-
A northwest flow delivers sunny skies with high temperatures climbing into the mid 30's. Westerly winds are gonna be obnoxious, blowing in the 50's and 60's for a good portion of the day.
Futurecast-
Clear skies are on tap for Monday with a weak brush-by slated to clip the region Tuesday and Wednesday.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Many avalanches reported across the range including a near miss at Currant Creek Peak (above) and an extremely close call near Moffit Peak.
More obs and trip reports found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Once triggered, today's avalanches will break deep and wide, taking out the entire seasons snowpack like yesterday's natural slide on Double Hill that Ted documented here.
Most slopes have persistent weak layers of faceted snow in the bottom half of the snowpack. New snow that fell in January formed a slab on top of these weak layers. Imagine a building with a weak foundation but we keep adding additional floors on top - eventually the whole structure collapses. New snow and wind drifted snow has added more floors to this unstable structure.
While much of our terrain exhibits weak layers of snow, the slab on top is more variable. The most likely places to trigger a slide are recently wind loaded slopes where the slab is thicker and more cohesive. Recent strong winds have reached below treeline and affected many slopes.
THIS AVALANCHE PROBLEM IS TRICKY - Tracks on a slope do not mean it's safe. As a matter of fact, as the snow gains strength it allows us to get well out onto the slope before it fails and it may be the 2nd, 3rd, or even 10th person on a slope who triggers the slide.
And here's where the rubber hits the road... recent avalanche activity shows us that avalanches are unmanageably large and breaking to the dirt!
I describe this set up in the video below
Photo below from an east facing slope shows that weak, rotten foundation in the snowpack near the ground. All the snow above it is what will avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Westerly winds have cranked for nearly 48 hours, easily transporting Friday's storm snow and whipping up a fresh batch of slabs.
The main issue with slabs of wind drifted snow is... they increase the load and stress on buried persistent weak layers which elevates the likelihood of triggering a slide. Once triggered, a small wind drift can easily get out of hand if it breaks into weaker layers of snow, buried deeper in the snowpack.
What's tricky - winds have reached well below treeline and you may find fresh deposits on slopes you normally consider sheltered from the wind.
Photo of winds drifting snow Friday. Weston reported that drifts TRIPLED in size in just a few hours.
Additional Information
On Thursday, Andy, Joey, and I setup the avalanche beacon training park at the Nobletts trailhead. There is also one at the Bear River Trailhead that Ted Scroggin set up. These beacon parks have pre-buried beacons that you can turn on/off with a control panel. It only takes a few minutes to refresh your beacon searching skills at one of these places.
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Monday, February 8th.
Your observations are import, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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