Forecast: Salt Lake Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Saturday morning, January 23, 2021

The avalanche danger is HIGH on all steep slopes at the upper elevations, where human-triggered slab avalanches are likely. The avalanche danger is also HIGH on mid-elevation steep slopes facing west, northwest, north, northeast, and east. We have very dangerous avalanche conditions, and traveling in avalanche terrain is NOT recommended. Slab avalanches 1 to 3 feet deep hundreds of feet wide are likely. These are unsurvivable avalanche conditions.

All other aspects have a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger.

If you're leaving a resort boundary through an exit point, you are stepping into HIGH avalanche danger.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Avalanche Warning

RECENT HEAVY SNOW HAS OVERLOADED A VERY WEAK SNOWPACK AND HAS CREATED WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.

Weather and Snow

The National Weather Service has continued the winter weather advisory through 8:00 pm tonight. Heavy snowfall will develop in areas favored on a southwest flow throughout the day. An additional 4-8" of snow is forecasted with higher amounts in favored locations and north of the Cottonwoods. Southerly winds might pick up throughout the morning with speeds in the 10-15 mph range across the upper elevations.

Overnight the southerly winds blew at speeds of 15-20 mph across the upper elevation terrain before completely dying off this morning. Current wind speeds are in the single digits (mph) at almost all mountain sites. Current mountain temperatures are in the upper teens °F above about 9,000' and the mid 20's °F below about 9,000'.

Snow totals are as follows:

Upper LCC: 16" new snow 1.42" snow water equivalent

Upper BCC: 15-20" new snow 0.95-1.50" snow water equivalent

PC Ridgeline: 10-13" new snow 0.85-1.20" snow water equivalent

Millcreek Canyon: 14" new snow 1.30" snow water equivalent

Provo Area: 10-12" new snow 1.0-1.23" snow water equivalent

Ogden area: 8-12" new snow 0.50-1.10 snow water equivalent

Recent Avalanches

No new avalanches were reported yesterday from the backcountry. However, overnight, with heavy snowfall, I would imagine some areas outside of the upper cottonwoods are going through a natural avalanche cycle this morning as this heavy snow overloads our weak pre-existing snowpack. We will have plenty of avalanches to report tomorrow.

Our Week in Review - where we highlight significant weather and avalanche events from the past week - has been published.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Heavy snow has overloaded our pre-existing, shallow, and weak (faceted) snowpack. You can expect avalanches to be 1-3' deep, hundreds of feet wide, and will probably be unsurvivable. There is no mystery here; if you choose to ride on slopes greater than 30° in steepness, you will likely trigger a large avalanche. Patience and avoidance is key today.

Heads up - low elevations drainages are also plagued with weak faceted snow, and this will be the first time our low elevation terrain will see a significant load. If you're starting from a low elevation drainage, don't forget about the avalanche danger and avoid being in terrain traps where the snow can pile up deeply.

VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST AND TRAVEL IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED. NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY, AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE VERY LIKELY.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

As heavy snow falls across all elevations and aspects, it's landing on a variety of weak surfaces. Observers all week have noted surface hoar and near surface facets on the snow surface throughout the range. This storm also started with graupel and later transitioned to snowflakes. Regardless of what you want to call the old snow surface, we know it's weak, and the newest storm snow is our slab. There are several ways for the new snow to slide as either a soft slab or a loose dry avalanche.

Any new snow avalanche triggered can step down into deeper weaker layers creating a much larger avalanche.

General Announcements

Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures