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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 20, 2021
You can still trigger an avalanche on steep, northerly facing slopes that have enough snow to ski or ride. Since these areas are far and few between, the avalanche danger is MODERATE. The current snowpack structure is very weak and the danger will instantly increase with any significant snow load. Most south-facing slopes are bare and therefore have LOW to no avalanche danger.
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. The surface is snow packed on dirt.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails through Geyser Pass and Gold Basin yesterday.
Weather and Snow
The mountains picked up 1"-3" of snow yesterday and skies remain mostly cloudy this morning. Southerly ridgetop winds are blowing in the 20-25 mph range, and temps are around 20F. Today look for clearing skies, diminishing SW winds, and high temps near 30 degrees. Similar conditions are on tap for Thursday. After that, all eyes are on the weekend as a Pacific low slides down the California coast. Discrepancies remain about the size and track of this system but we should get a decent shot of snow on Saturday, followed by another system on Monday. Keep your fingers crossed, do a snow dance, or practice whatever form of magic you prefer to make this happen!
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
The meager snowpack has deteriorated into a pile of mostly weak, sugary, facets with a couple of buried crusts thrown in here and there and it won't take much of a load to create dangerous avalanche conditions. Snow cover ranges from about 12"-24" Winds have wreaked havoc on exposed terrain and most south-facing slopes are bare.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Anyone who has been following knows that our meager snowpack is rife with persistent weak layers of loose, sugary faceted snow with one or two crusts buried in there. It is still possible to trigger an avalanche on steep, north-facing slopes that have enough snow to ski or ride though these areas are far and few between. Looking to the future, any significant load of new snow will be too much for these weak layers to bear causing an immediate rise in avalanche danger. Unfortunately, this weak structure will probably remain with us for the rest of the season, and steep, north-facing terrain will most likely be off-limits until spring.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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