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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 19, 2021
You can still trigger an avalanche on steep, northerly facing slopes that have enough snow to ski or ride. Since these areas are far and few between, the avalanche danger is MODERATE. The current snowpack structure is very weak and the danger will instantly increase with any significant snow load. As a result, steep, NW-N-E facing slopes should be avoided for the foreseeable future. Most south-facing slopes are bare and therefore have LOW to no avalanche danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. The surface is snow packed on dirt.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) will be up grooming today.
Weather and Snow
Skies are cloudy, SE ridgetop winds are blowing in the 20-25 mph range, and mountain temps are around 20F. A closed low tracking southwest through the 4 Corners region will give us a chance for a couple of inches of snow before noon. High pressure builds Wednesday with long-range models finally showing hope for a change in the pattern this weekend and extending into early next week. Today look for mostly cloudy skies and a chance for snow this morning. SE winds will blow in the 15-20 mph range with higher gusts along ridge tops. High temps will be in the low 20's.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
The meager snowpack has deteriorated into a pile of mostly weak, sugary, facets with a couple of buried crusts thrown in here and there. Snow cover ranges from about 12"-24" Winds have wreaked havoc on exposed terrain and most south-facing slopes are bare.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Anyone who has been following knows that our meager snowpack is rife with persistent weak layers of loose, sugary faceted snow with one or two crusts buried in there. It is still possible to trigger an avalanche on steep, north-facing slopes that have enough snow to ski or ride though these areas are far and few between. Looking to the future, any significant load of new snow will be too much for these weak layers to bare causing an immediate rise in avalanche danger. Unfortunately, this weak structure will probably remain with us for the rest of the season, and steep, north-facing terrain will most likely be off-limits until spring.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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