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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 10, 2021
Human triggered avalanches remain likely on steep, northerly facing slopes that have enough snow to ride or ski and the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE in these areas. With the current snowpack structure consisting of a slab on top of layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow, steep, NW-E facing slopes should be avoided for the foreseeable future. Most south-facing terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. The surface is snow packed on dirt.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails on Saturday. Thanks, Kirsten!
Chris Benson has detailed the last two weeks in this excellent synopsis.
I'm very sorry to report Utah's first avalanche fatality of the season. A 31-year-old man was killed in a backcountry area in the Wasatch Mountains know as Dutch Draw. Our sincere condolences go out to the family and friends. Here is the preliminary report.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 23" Wind N 5-10 Temp 14F
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack Discussion The story remains the same with our fragile snowpack. Layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow and a couple of melt-freeze crusts exist beneath a cohesive slab formed by wind and snow from our last storm. In my travels on Friday, I continued to observe fairly widespread collapsing and whumphing, sure red flag signs of instability. Mike Lobeck sent in this observation from South Mountain where he reported more of the same. Conditions are deceiving due to the overall lack of coverage and the general inaccessibility of avalanche terrain, but if you went searching for an avalanche you would most certainly find one. Pro observer Dave Garcia sums it up like this, "if I attempted to ski anything that has enough snow to actually make turns I would most likely trigger an avalanche." I've included a few photos from my tour on Friday that illustrate the kind of terrain you'll want to avoid.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Our snowpack is rife with persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow along with a couple of smooth, hard, melt feeze layers to form a perfect bed surface. Red flag signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing continue to be fairly widespread, even at lower elevations. Although avalanche terrain remains difficult to access due to low coverage, human-triggered avalanches are likely in these areas and steep, northerly facing terrain will remain off-limits for the foreseeable future.
These snowpit images illustrate the current precarious state of the snowpack.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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