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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 6, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, northerly facing slopes. In these areas, layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow have become dangerously overloaded and human triggered avalanches are likely. At upper elevations, recent wind drifting has exacerbated the problem. With the current snowpack structure, steep, N-E facing slopes should be avoided for the foreseeable future. Most south-facing terrain has generally LOW danger. Be on the lookout for isolated wind drifts on SE and W facing slopes at upper elevations.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is plowed. The surface is snow packed on dirt.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails on Tuesday.
The Utah Avalanche Center podcast's second episode of season 4 is live - Managing Risk with Avalanches, Managing Risk with a Pandemic - A Conversation with state epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn.
Stream here or tune in wherever you get your favorite podcasts
There are several new blogs that have recently been published:
Read a few short anecdotes in a blog from UAC staff about how avalanches can surprise us.
UAC forecasters Paige Pagnucco and Greg Gagne discussing danger ratings and persistent weak layers.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 25" Wind NW 5-15 Temp 16F
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack Discussion It's no secret that last week's snow load has added significant stress to our fragile snowpack. In my travels Sunday I continued to observe fairly widespread collapsing and whumphing, sure red flag signs of instability. Maggie Nielsen was up Sunday as well and she noted active wind loading, an additional red flag. Read her observation here. Conditions are deceiving due to the overall lack of snow, and although avalanche terrain is difficult to access, the danger in these areas is real. The snow quality below treeline is quite good, but overall coverage is still very thin so keep your enthusiasm in check and stick to low-angle grassy slopes and meadows.
Recent Avalanches
Here is a list of observed avalanches in Gold Basin from last week's storm.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Our snowpack is rife with persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow along with a couple of smooth, hard, melt feeze layers to form a perfect bed surface. Red flag signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing continue to be fairly widespread, even at lower elevations. Although avalanche terrain remains difficult to access due to low coverage, human-triggered avalanches are likely in these areas and steep, northerly facing terrain will remain off-limits for the foreseeable future.
These snowpit images illustrate the current precarious state of the snowpack.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate to strong SW-NW winds have blown and drifted snow at upper elevations. Look for unstable areas of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in exposed, upper elevation terrain. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. In most cases, a triggered wind drift will likely step down into a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow causing a deeper, and more dangerous avalanche. Avoid steep slopes with areas of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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