Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Tuesday morning, January 5, 2021
Heads up... a storm is on our doorstep and the avalanche danger changed overnight. Today's avalanches may break deeper and wider than you might expect, and they're gonna pack a punch.
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on steep, wind drifted slopes. Steep terrain facing the north half of the compass, and particularly slopes with an easterly component to its aspect are most suspect and should be avoided.
Mid elevations offer MODERATE avalanche danger on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Here's your exit strategy-
LOW avalanche danger is found on mid and low elevation slopes, particularly those facing south, but snow cover is super thin.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Andy and I installed the Are You Beeping avalanche transceiver checkpoint at the Mill Hollow trailhead. It's super easy to use.... you just slide by it and check that your gear is working properly before hitting snow.
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
And then... it snowed! Snowfall began right around 8:00 last night and the storm continued intensifying early this morning. It's a North Slope favored flow, with Trial Lake to Chalk Creek stacking up 5" of medium density snow and .40 H2O. The south half of the range clocks with with half that amount. Under mostly cloudy skies, snow continues piling up, temperatures are in the low 20's, and west-southwest winds hum along the high ridges, blowing 25-35 mph, with gusts in the mid 40's along the high peaks. Total snow depths averaging just over two feet make the range look like we're in the early portion of an average December. And while conditions are slowly improving, it's still low tide in the Uinta's and travel is sorta limited to road rides and grassy slopes.
Forecast-
Storminess continues through the morning and we might be able to squeeze out an additional 3"-5" of snow, before things wind down midday. West winds switch to the northwest later today and crank along the high ridges, averaging 25-35 mph, gusting into the 50's near the peaks. High temperatures climb into the mid 20's and with clearing skies tonight, dip into the single digits.
Futurecast-
High pressure brings a warming trend through midweek. The next chance for appreciable snow looks to come Friday night into Saturday.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
No recent avalanche activity to report since last Thursday, but images and descriptors below give you a sense of the avalanche dragon we're dealing with.
Looking for more avy info and trip reports? Well then, simply click here .
Dave Kikkert stomped around upper Weber Canyon Thursday, remotely triggering the avalanche in the image above from nearly a football field away. Check out that nasty terrain trap, it's a gully, and if you screw up, all that snow stuffs you into it. Dave's been in the avalanche business a couple decades and he's treading lightly. A great observation and solid insight is found here.
A small, yet dangerous slide triggered Sunday, Dec. 27th in the Wolf Creek Bowl is easily seen by the side of the road. I took a look... click HERE for more info.
You know the program... roadside attractions are still an easy grab and just 'cause you can see it from the car doesn't mean it's safe or you're good to go. And remember, our front-line health care workers are maxed out. So, let's collectively think about our decisions and the consequences that may have on others.
Ted was in Humpy Basin and found avalanches triggered early last week. His great info, insight and advice is found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Yesterday, my crew and I spent the entire day with our noses and hands in the snow and it's pretty clear... our current structure is a gong show. No, it's not a top to bottom sugary mess, rather there's some layering and structure, with a heat crust thrown in the middle of the pack just to keep us on our toes, and that makes it even more deceiving. Indeed, we've got a somewhat complex setup and we could get overwhelmed by over-analyzing... so let's keep it simple.
It's storming, the wind is blowing, we have a persistent weak layer in the mid portion of our snowpack, and our fragile pack is going through a rapid change. This is the setup where the wheels come off the bus.
And while recent avalanche activity has abated somewhat, we know this type of snow structure leads to tricky avalanche conditions, because the snowpack is waiting for a trigger like us to roll along, collapse the slope, and knock the legs out from under it. And yes, we can trigger slides from a distance or from adjacent slopes. As a matter of fact, this is the kind of avalanche dragon where we pull the entire log pile down on top of us, even if we're playing on low angle terrain. But you don't have to ride blind... so, tweak small test slopes, looking for and listening to signs of unstable snow like whoomping sounds and sudden collapses of the snowpack or shooting cracks in front of your skis, board, or sled. And of course the biggest clue of all... recent avalanches, especially on the same types of slopes you wanna ride on.
A couple years ago, my colleague Trent and I demonstrated how a similar snowpack reacts to our additional weight. We don't need to be on the slope, just connected to it... we've got the same setup right now.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Highlighted in red, you can clearly see winds started picking up right around 1:00 this morning.
Winds blew along the high peaks yesterday, but I found recent wind drifts, hard, stubborn, and unreactive. Today it's a different story because winds have fresh snow to work with. As today's storm evolves look for widespread drifting, not only along the leeward side of ridges, but also around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In either case, it's an easy and mostly manageable avalanche problem to avoid by simply steering clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, particularly if it sounds hollow like a drum. And remember... our snowpack is super shallow and triggering even a small slide can take you for a body-bruising ride through rocks and stumps barely hidden under the thin snowpack.
Additional Information
Mark Staples teamed up and Ski-Doo athlete Steve Martin, and they had a great and very informative ride in the Whitney Basin. Whilst out and about, they remotely triggered a small slide on the way to investigating a large, moose triggered avalanche. In the viddy above they've got some great advice on how to ride when avalanche danger is elevated and snow depths lean.
I'll update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Wednesday January 6th.
Your observations are import, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.