Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 21, 2020
Most terrain has generally LOW danger. An isolated, or MODERATE avalanche danger may exist on steep northerly facing slopes where wind drifted snow is overlying layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Overall low coverage makes it very difficult to access avalanche terrain at this time, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. or that feel hollow underneath. Cracking, whumphing, or collapsing of the snowpack are signs of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead has officially closed to wheeled vehicles for the season. This closure is in effect from Dec 15 - May 15. The road to the trailhead is snowpacked and slick. 4wd is recommended.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) groomed all trails again yesterday. Thanks Matt!
Please visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
We've kicked off Season 4 of the UAC podcast with a Conversation with American Avalanche Institute owner Sarah Carpenter. You can stream it HERE or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 20" Wind NW 10-15 G25 Temp 22F
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Snowpack Discussion
2"-5" of new snow fell across the range on Friday. Overall coverage is still too thin for skiing and riding off of packed roads. The current snowpack structure is very poor and it is now just a waiting game for future snow loads.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Overall low snow coverage makes avalanche problems far and few between, and most of the avalanche terrain is largely inaccessible at this time. If you somehow manage to access this kind of terrain here are some problems you may encounter:
Persistent Weak Layer On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely due to the lack of an overriding slab, but each additional snow load will incrementally increase the probability. In isolated areas, a slab may exist on top of this weak snow. If you observe signs of instability such as cracking or collapsing of the snowpack you have found such an area.
Wind Drfited Snow Isolated, unstable wind drifts may still exist at upper elevations on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Wind drifts are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance or they may sound or feel hollow underneath. Most wind slabs will be hard and welded into place by now but smooth, rounded pillows should still be avoided, especially if they feel hollow underneath.
Additional Information
I don't need to tell everyone things aren't looking good but in case you want to know how bad it is, we are currently at 17% of normal snowpack.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.