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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Thursday, March 28, 2019
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE for wet snow avalanches at the mid and low elevations ​​​- for both loose sluffs and wet slabs. The wet snow will be slow to cool today, and any rain on snow will increase the danger. The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep upper elevation slopes for triggering a slab of wind drifted snow. These drifts will be most widespread on slopes facing the north 1/2 of the compass, but scattered drifts may be found at the mid elevations and cross loaded around terrain features.
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Weather and Snow
The string of warm mornings continues - with not a weather station in the Provo area mountains is below freezing this morning. It's at or above 40 degrees at the 7,000' to 7500’ stations, and in the mid to upper 30s at the 8,000' stations. To the north, temperatures finally dip below freezing around 9,500’. The southwesterly winds have been cranking overnight, averaging 15 to 25 mph, with gusts in the 30s at the mid elevations in the Provo area mountains. High peaks to the north are averaging 30 to 35 mph, gusting into the 60s and 70s.
A first, weak front will arrive late morning, with a second, colder wave early this evening. Strong southerly winds are expected to continue until about mid morning, when they will shift to the northwest and decrease. Expect convective snow showers to develop this afternoon, with an inch or two of snow possible and the chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Temperatures will remain warm through midday, slowly cooling this afternoon. - highs will be in the low to mid 40s at 8,000’ and in the upper twenties at 10,000’. The rain/snow line will be around 7,500’. Overnight, a second front moves in, with moderate northwest winds, colder temperatures, and steady snow. 4 to 8” possible by tomorrow morning, with the rain/snow line falling to about 5,000’.
Recent Avalanches
Wind transport was noted up high yesterday along the American Fork/Little Cottonwood ridge line, and a hard wind slab released with explosives on the Little Cottonwood side, on a northeast facing slope at 10,600’. It was 20” deep by 60’ wide, running a long distance in steep terrain. A very small, wet loose sluff was trigger in the Provo area mountains on an east facing slope at 7,000'. A glide avalanche was seen in Broads Fork, Big Cottonwood Canyon, from afar, which probably released overnight Tuesday.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There have been above freezing temperatures for over 72 hours at the mid and low elevations. The wet snowpack will be slow to cool today, and wet loose sluffs and wet slab avalanches are possible on steep slopes of all aspects at the low and mid elevations.
Wet loose sluffs will be easy to trigger on steep slopes anywhere the snow is wet or soggy. Stay on lower angle slopes at the mid and low elevations and avoid travel in and below run out zones. Snow is often extra warm and soggy near rocks or in shallower snowpack areas. Be especially alert for additional heating of the snow if the clouds thin, the wind stops blowing or it rains where you are.
Wet Slabs are the tricky ones - this is when water pools in deeper layers in the snowpack, hiding beneath shallowly frozen crusts. Signs to watch for - collapsing, punchy or bending crusts, or when you are breaking through the crusts. A wet slab can break loose when you think you’re on a supportable frozen snow. Again, avoid this wet snow problem by staying on lower angle slopes at the mid and low elevations.
Below is a 7 day temperature graph from the Sundance mid mountain weather station, 7,450'. ° F on the left axis, red line is 32° F.
Glide cracks become more active during prolonged heating, sending the whole season’s snowpack down slope. Avoid spending time below the yawning cracks.
Roof slides can occur at any time, especially with warming temperatures - always avoid travel beneath snow laden roofs and warn others.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Expect hard slabs of wind drifted snow both along the ridge lines and well off ridge lines. The southerly winds have been eroding and drifting snow for over 24 hours. The drifts will be most widespread on upper elevation, northerly facing slopes, but scattered drifts will also be found at the mid elevations and cross loaded around sub ridges and mid slope break overs. Wind drift can be hard and supportable or cracky, and often look smooth and rounded.
Cornices are too large to tangle with or try to intentionally trigger. Avoid these monsters.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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