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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Thursday, February 14, 2019
HIGH: Natural and human triggered avalanches are likely on many slopes.
  • Avoid travel in avalanche terrain today.
  • Stay off and out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees and well clear of obvious or historic avalanche runouts...
Low
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High
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
AVALANCHE WARNING ISSUED . IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST FRIDAY
  • ALL THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH, TO INCLUDE THE BEAR RIVER AND WASATCH RANGE, THE WESTERN UINTAS, AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE PLATEAU.
  • STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY DENSE SNOW AND SOME RAIN-ON-SNOW AT LOW ELEVATIONS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS AND A HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER.
  • NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES WILL BE LIKELY ON MANY ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS.
Weather and Snow
Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry, and you should avoid travel in avalanche terrain today.
Suddenly, a HUGE load of water is added to our varied and in some places fragile snowpack. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports a foot of very heavy snow, with 2.4" SWE in the last 24 hours! It's 28º F this morning and there's 83" of total snow containing 104% of average SWE for the date. It's 23º F, at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. South-southwest winds are currently averaging around 40 mph, with a recent 65 mph gust.
A series of storms will impact northern portions of the area through Saturday while southern Utah will get into the act Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Unsettled and cold weather is expected to continue through early next week. Expect snow today at upper elevations in the Logan Zone, and rain below about 7500'. 3 to 5 inches of accumulation is possible. High temperatures at 8500' expected to be around 35º F, with 20 mph southwest winds. Tonight 5 to 9 inches of accumulation possible, temperatures will be around 18º F, and expect 30 mph west-southwest wind with gusts of around 43 mph. Snow will continue tomorrow, with 3 to 7 inches, high temperatures around 26º F and 15 to 20 mph southwest winds.
Recent Avalanches
Riders report natural avalanche activity in Providence Canyon yesterday evening. An avalanche came off the south facing slope across the canyon from the Quarry, and stacked up debris on the trail while the party was riding higher up.
  • Tuesday, I could see evidence of natural wind slab and cornice fall activity on several of the east facing slopes in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness. I also spied a large recent natural hard slab avalanche that ran on a buried persistent week layer in upper Mill Hollow in the Logan Peak / Folly Saddle
  • Friday, heli-ski guides remote triggered a large hard slab avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer near the ground in the southern Bear River Range. The avalanche was on a northwest facing slope at around 8400' in elevation..
A snowmobile rider was buried and killed Thursday Evening in a large avalanche east of Beaver, UT near Circleville Mountain. Report is.....HERE
A rider was buried and killed on Saturday in the Chalk Creek Area of the Western Uintas, northeast of Coalville. Preliminary Report is HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Significant accumulations of heavy new snow will cause natural soft slab and loose avalanches on steep slopes at all elevations, even in sheltered terrain...
Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist this morning on drifted upper and mid-elevation slopes. Avalanches involving wind drifted snow could be quite large and dangerous. Cornices are likely to break much further back than expected and could be quite large.
  • Avoid wind drifted snow on the lee side of major ridges and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, scoops, stringers, cliff bands, and gullies.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's raining this morning up to around 7500' in elevation. Natural wet avalanches entraining large piles of heavy wet snow are likely at lower and mid elevations today.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Dangerous natural and human triggered avalanches consisting of new or wind drifted snow and failing on a buried persistent weak layer are likely.
  • Frost or feathery surface hoar and thick and thinner layers of small-grained near surface facets plagued the snow surface on many slopes before the Superbowl Storm. These are notorious persistent weak layers, and in some areas were buried intact, so the danger of avalanches failing on one will linger for a while.
  • Significant accumulations of SWE added quite a bit of weight to the slab overloading the buried weak snow near the bottom of the snowpack in some places. Dangerous, 3 to 5-foot-deep hard slab avalanches are likely, especially on steep, recently drifted slopes with poor snow structure. In some areas today, you could trigger avalanches remotely, from a distance, or worse from below.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast tomorrow morning.
The new weather station at the WSU Bloomington Canyon Yurt is up and running. Data available HERE
Now is a great time to practice companion rescue techniques with your backcountry partners. You should check out and use the new Avalanche Beacon Training Park we set up at the Franklin Basin trailhead. Special thanks to Northstars Ultimate Outdoors and USU Outdoor Program for helping us to make this possible.
General Announcements
The Beaver Mountain Backside is the backcountry, and it is avalanche terrain. Same goes for the steep rocky terrain adjacent to Cherry Peak Resort. If you leave a ski area boundary, you and your partners should carry and practice with avalanche rescue equipment and follow safe backcountry travel protocols.
Check out the improved weather links, road conditions, and weather links for each forecast region on the new UAC IOS App. Do you use the NOAA point forecast? If so, now you can bookmark your favorite weather locations in "My Weather" in the App. HERE
Are you new to the backcountry or looking to refresh your skills? The UAC has released a free 5-part avalanche skills eLearning series. HERE
If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations. HERE You can call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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