Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
EXPECT A RISING AVALANCHE DANGER TODAY! Blowing and drifting snow have created dangerous avalanche conditions. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE this morning but could rise to HIGH on upper elevation, northerly facing aspects as more snow accumulates during the day. Human triggered avalanches are likely on all steep, wind drifted slopes, and natural avalanches are possible. Stay of of and out from under steep terrain. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We will be offering a Backcountry 101 avalanche course on Feb 8, 9. It's a great way to up your avalanche knowledge with both classroom, and hands on field instruction. Click here for more details and to register. Much thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course! Please visit them for all of your winter backcountry needs.
Weather and Snow
Gold Basin is reporting 3" of new snow this morning but the story continues to be the wind. Overnight, SW winds blew in the 30-40 mph range with gusts into the 50's and this trend will continue through today. Look for snow showers today with another 3" or so likely, Snowfall should increase this evening with another 3"-5" possible overnight. High temps today will be in the mid 20's before they crash into the single digits tonight. Continued snow showers, strong winds, and cold temps are on tap for tomorrow.
Base depth in Gold Basin: 58"
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
This video was shot on Sunday but it's pretty much what you are going to see today!
Recent Avalanches
No recent activity to report.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are likely today, and we may also see some natural activity off the higher, steep faces. Sustained strong southerly winds have been blowing and drifting snow for the past few days, and you may find wind slabs on the lee sides of terrain features on all sides of the compass at upper elevations. Deeper drifts will be found on slopes facing NW-NE-E. Stay out from under high, steep faces with these aspects, and avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Drifting snow has added additional stress to buried, persistent weak layers in the snowpack. Our primary layer of concern is the early December snow that has turned to weak, sugary facets. Today there remains a very real possibility for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche on this weak layer. The danger is greatest on steep, upper elevation slopes facing NW-N-E, but in some areas the problem wraps around to W and SE facing slopes.
Travis Nauman and Reed Kennard noted strengthening persistent weak layers in this observation but we aren't out of the woods yet.
Here is their snowpit from a NE aspect at 10,400'. Layer of conncern continues to be facets from early December.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.