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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Sunday, January 20, 2019
The Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE on all mid and upper elevation slopes and the shady low elevation slopes. Human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes. Avoid travel in avalanche terrain - which includes slopes steeper than about 30 degrees as well as travel below steep slopes and in avalanche runout zones. Wet loose sluffs can be triggered on steep low to mid elevation slopes of all aspects as the day heats up or the sun comes out.
Those with excellent avalanche and route finding skills will find great turning and riding conditions in supportable settled powder on low angle, wind sheltered slopes.
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Avalanche Warning
A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 530 AM MST MONDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE BEAR RIVER RANGE AND ALL OF THE WASATCH RANGE. THE AVALANCHE DANGER IS CONSIDERABLE IN THE BEAR RIVER AND WASATCH MOUNTAIN RANGES. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY ON ALL STEEP WIND DRIFTED SLOPES. DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS CONTINUE...CREATED BY THE SNOW AND WIND FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. AVOID BEING ON OR UNDERNEATH STEEP SLOPES.
Special Announcements
Sadly yesterday, the body of a backcountry skier was recovered from an avalanche near Electric Lake, on the Manti/Skyline Plateau. Our condolences to their family and friends. The accident report was updated last night, with many more details and photos of this sad accident.
Weather and Snow
Today and tonight will be a 24 hour break of cloudy, warm and windy weather. Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the Ogden area mountains are the twenties and thirties this morning, and will warm again into the upper 30s today at the mid and lower elevations. The southwesterly winds are averaging 35 and gusting to 45 along the upper elevation ridge lines, and averaging 15 mph, gusting to 30 mph off the ridges. Many wind stations seem rimed this morning.
Another storm is on tap for Monday into Monday night, with strong winds and 1 to 2 feet of snow.
Recent Avalanches
There were two widespread natural avalanche cycles on Thursday and Thursday night, but the crowns and debris hidden beneath the last of the storm snow. The Ogden resorts were able to release stubborn, hard wind slabs with explosives, some running fast and far. These were up to 3 feet deep. Collapsing was reported from the Monte Cristo area.
Notable backcountry avalanches yesterday included one on Cutler ridge at 7,000' on a northeast facing slope. This 200' wide slide failed on the near surface facet layer, on a low angle 32 degree slope.
Cutler Ridge, Brian Smith photos
Gray stripe is surface facets
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Multiple avalanche cycles have left a patchwork of slopes that have slid, and those that haven’t, and much of the evidence is hidden beneath the newest snow and wind slabs. This make stability evaluation very difficult.
Today, the southwesterly winds will again be strong enough at times to drift some snow at the higher elevations into another layer of sensitive wind slabs. The old, but still dangerous wind drifts from Thursday are now hidden, but could still produce large, hard slab avalanches 2 to 3 feet deep, mostly at the upper elevations. Drifts are to the lee of ridge lines and cross-loaded into couloirs and gullies and may be triggered at a distance or break above you.
Avoidance continues to be key and sticking to low angle terrain (less than 30°) with nothing steep above or adjacent to you is the only tool in the tool box for safety.
A great observation by Mike Fogg here. From the Monte Cristo area, taking the time to really look at the snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
While the faceted weak layers in the snowpack are slowly adjusting to the new load, there has been so much heavy snow and wind drifting they can’t be trusted yet. You can trigger a slide on one of the buried facet layers on a steep slope, including at the lower elevations, and from a distance or below. The Ogden area mountains have both near surface facets buried and patchy surface hoar in protected areas, including at the lower elevations are suspect, too. Any shallower, new snow slide or triggered wind drift may “step down”, breaking on one of these deeper weak layer, resulting in a large, dangerous slide.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a day of warm temperatures in the forecast and possible sun, wet loose sluffs are possible on low elevation slopes of all aspects. Avoid small terrain traps such as creek beds and road banks. If the sun really comes out where you are, the snow on steep, sunny mid and upper elevation slopes may also become damp and sluff
Additional Information
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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