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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees on
Thursday morning, November 22, 2018
3 pm update: The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and backcountry travel in the mid to upper elevations of the Provo area mountains is not recommended. Slopes facing west through north through southeast have old weak snow on the ground, that the new snow is failing on. Long running natural avalanches have occurred.
  • We will update this forecast by 7:30 Friday morning.
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Weather and Snow
Skies are cloudy and there’ve been a few snow flurries early this morning. Temperatures are in the 20s to mid 30s. The first serious wave of snowfall should start around noon, with 3 to 7” possible by evening. The southerly winds will be a significant player today – averaging 10 to 20 mph, with gusts in the 30s. Across the higher ridgelines, speeds will average closer to 35 mph, with gusts in the 50s.
Snow coverage is very limited in the Provo area mountains generally above 9 or 9,500' on the shday slopes. This “base” of 1 to 2 feet of old snow on shady slopes will rapidly become too dangerous to travel on, and it may be a few more days until the bare sunny slopes and lower elevations fill in.
Recent Avalanches
Loose snow sluffs of facets were triggered yesterday on steep, shady slopes in the Salt Lake area mountains.
No observations from the Provo area mountains, but the upper elevation snow is similar to the snow in the Salt Lake area mountains. Recent observations can be found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
After weeks of cold weather, the shallow 1 to 2 foot deep snowpack up high in the Provo area mountains has turned into very loose weak sugary facets, with a few thin mid-pack crusts thrown in. These facets will not be able to hold much weight.
Today, after the first few inches of new snow fall, it will be surprisingly easy to trigger loose snow sluffs that will gouge down into the facets, running further than expected and pack a surprising punch.
By day’s end or overnight, if 6 to 10” of new snow stacks up or on slopes where wind drifts form, natural avalanches may start occurring, and it will be possible to trigger soft slab avalanches, breaking wide and again running surprisingly far.
This old faceted snow will remain a dangerous weak layer all weekend and beyond.
Additional Information
More snow is on the way! An additional 3 to 5” of snow is expected tonight, followed by 5 to 9" of warm heavy snow and strong gusty winds on Friday. A cold front will cross the area Friday night, with snowfall continuing into Saturday. Snow totals of two to three feet are expected by Sunday morning.
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