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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, March 16, 2018

UPDATED, 11AM: The avalanche danger is HIGH in the upper elevation steep slopes that face northwest, north and east. Human triggered avalanches are likely on these slopes today. Wind driven heavy new snow is stressing the deeply buried weak snow near the ground and avalanches will break to the ground if you trigger one.

The avalanche danger will remain elevated or even increase over the weekend with additional new snow.

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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.

* TIMING…IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MST TODAY TO 6PM MST SUNDAY, MARCH 18.

* AFFECTED AREA…FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE MANTI SKYLINE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF UTAH INCLUDING THE FISH LAKE MOUNTAINS.

* AVALANCHE DANGER…THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA WILL BE HIGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL IN OR BENEATH AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED. WEAK SNOW NEAR THE GROUND HAS BEEN OVERLOADED WITH NEW WIND BLOWN SNOW FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. LARGE AVALANCHES BREAKING TO THE GROUND ARE LIKELY. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE VERY LIKELY TODAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDERNEATH STEEP SLOPES. AVALANCHES CAN BE TRIGGERED FROM A DISTANCE EVEN FROM BELOW A STEEP SLOPE.

Special Announcements

We couldn't get out on the snow without the great support from Polaris, Ski Doo, and Arctic Cat as well as KTM and Timbersled. Our local dealers make it happen. Tri-City Performance, Weller Recreation, Northstar's Ultimate Outdoors, Big Pine and Morgan Valley Polaris. We use these machines to monitor the snowpack across the state of Utah. We also use these machines to teach life-saving classes.

Weather and Snow

We've received almost a foot of snow in the mountains since Wednesday. Southwest wind was strong but has slowed as of this morning. There is still enough wind along the ridges to transport snow and form drifts. Temperatures dipped into the mid teens overnight.

Recent Avalanches

I triggered a large avalanche while doing fieldwork on Thursday. I triggered it from a safe location on top of a ridge. It broke to the ground and was about 800 feet wide and over 5 feet deep at the deepest spot. DETAILS HERE.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

It's the same story as it has been. Weak snow near the ground has created an unstable snowpack. Avalanches are breaking into this weak snow taking out the entire winter snowpack. They are to the point where they are very large now. With more stormy weather ahead, the situation is only going to get more dangerous.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Sun and warming temperatures during the day may be enough to create some wet loose avalanches involving the newest snow.

Additional Information

A large low pressure system is moving through Utah. We'll see a break today with perhaps a little sun peaking through mid day. High temperatures will get into the upper 20s and we'll have moderate speed ridgetop west wind. The next portion of the storm will move through late Saturday into Sunday which looks like it should give us another 4 to 8 inches of snow.

General Announcements

Support the Utah Avalanche Center through your everyday shopping. DETAILS HERE

We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

If you are getting out into the mountains, we love to hear from you! You can SUBMIT OBSERVATIONS ONLINE or EMAIL US

If you would like to have avalanche advisories emailed to you, SIGN UP HERE

We can provide basic avalanche awareness presentations for your school, group or club. To enquire, CLICK HERE

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