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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees on
Sunday morning, March 11, 2018

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep slopes facing northwest through southeasterly at the mid and upper elevations. Avalanche 1 to 2 feet deep can be triggered by a rider, especially in thinner snowpack areas.

Warm temperatures and periods of sun today will heat the snow, and wet loose avalanches can be triggered on all aspects at the mid and low elevation and on steep, sunny slopes later today.

Safer riding conditions can be on lower-angle terrain with no steep slopes above.

Roof-avalanches are occurring as snow slides off building roofs, with debris piles deep enough to bury and kill a person.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

Under mostly clear skies, there was a good refreeze overnight – temperatures are in the 20s at most elevations in the Ogden area mountains and there was a good overnight refreeze of the snow. Winds are from southeast, 10 to 15 mph averages at the mid elevation, with the high peaks averaging 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph at times.

A bit of soft dense remains on high elevation northerly facing slopes, all other slopes are sporting frozen crusts this morning, many breakable, that should soften with day time heating. There are reports of good spring skiing conditions.

Here are the most recent Ogden observations.

Recent Avalanches

No new avalanche activity reported from the Ogden area mountains. If you are heading south to the crowded SLC area mountains for some reason, check the forecast - it's a whole different ball game down there.

Older avalanches from the past week do give clues as to the instabilities in the Ogden area mountains:

A human-triggered avalanche occurred on Wednesday in Coldwater Canyon (Technicolor) to the north of the Snowbasin boundary. The slide broke about 2' deep into old, faceted snow and ran about 1000' vertical.

Further south in the Bountiful Sessions mountains, explosive testing produced two large (size 3) avalanches on steep northeast facing slopes at roughly 9000', leaving significant debris piles.

Kory Davis noted two large natural avalanches on the Cutler and Willard headwalls, respectively, that likely occurred earlier in the week.

Cutler Headwall (pc: K Davis)

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Persistent slab avalanches are notoriously unpredictable and are aptly named. Poor structure exists above about 8000' on shady aspects and avalanches may be triggered by a skier or a rider or by finding a thinner snowpack area. Recent triggered avalanches in Coldwater Canyon to the north of Snowbasin and in the Bountiful area as well as natural avalanches on the Cutler and Willard headwalls are good indicators that persistent weak layers are still active. Staying off of and out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees mitigates this problem.

Video form Mark's visit to the Bountiful area Thursday where he found obvious weak snow.

YouTube link

Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Wet Loose: As the temperatures warm into the 30s and 40s today, the snow will once again become wet and sloppy on most aspects and elevations. The increasing clouds should help prevent natural wet snow slides, but rider triggered wet loose sluffs will be possible on all aspects and elevations except the high northerly facing slopes.

Roof-avalanches: Buildings are starting to shed their winter snow, so look up and avoid travel below steep roofs.

Dave Richards photo:

Cornices often break back further than expected, on to what looks like flat terrain. So give them a wide berth and avoid travel below them

Additional Information

A small storm system crossing southern Utah today is sending clouds our way. Skies should become partly to mostly cloudy today and the southeasterly winds decrease, with speeds in the 5 to 15 mph range forecast for both the mid and upper elevations. But it's the Ogden area mountains - speeds across the upper elevation ridge lines often beat the forecast by 10 to 20 mph. Today’s high temperatures will be in the mid 30 to mid 40s. The warming trend will continue into Wednesday, with a chance for mountain snow and cooler temperatures late in the week

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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