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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, March 11, 2016

With daytime heating, the danger will rise to MODERATE on sun exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls or pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow. Get off of, and stay out from under sun exposed slopes when these signs are present.

There also remains a MODERATE avalanche danger on steep upper elevation, wind drifted terrain, primarily on slopes with a NW-N-E aspect where it is possible to trigger a wind slab or persistent slab down to weak, shallow, sugary snow. Terrain choices are key - suspect slopes with steep convexities and be leery of rocky and more radical terrain.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

Skies are clear this morning and things are already heating up out there. Temperatures have been steadily climbing from an overnight low of 26 at 10,000' around midnight, to 35 at 6:00 a.m. It's already 40 degrees at the Geyser Pass tralihead. Southwest winds have been on the increase as well and they are currerntly averaging 20-25 mph. Timeing will be everything today. Sun exposed slopes that are crusted this morning will rapidly heat up and become mushy. Upper elevation, northerly aspects offer excellent settled powder conditions.

Base depth in Gold Basin: 66"

Winds, temperature and humidity on Pre-Laurel Peak

New snow totals, temperature and humidity in Gold Basin

Total snow depth and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead

Recent Avalanches

Warm temperatures and a strong sun yesterday produced numerous loose wet avalanches on E-S-W aspects. Expect more of the same today.


A skier triggered a slide in Gold Basin on the NE face of Tukno on Wednesday. He was caught and carried over rocks and sustained a leg injury. See the full report here.


This photo was taken from across the basin by a member of a party who would come to play a key role in the rescue.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

With daytime heating, the danger will again rise today for wet slide activity on sun exposed slopes. Look for signs of instability such as roller balls or pinwheels,sloppy wet snow and of course, actual loose snow sluffing. Get off of and stay out from under sun exposed slopes when these signs are present.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Though south facing slopes are mostly crusted over, southwest winds today will be able to transport any loose snow that may be lying around. Watch for new shallow wind slab development on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Additionally, it may still be possible to trigger an isolated, but deeper wind slab that formed earlier in the week. Suspect smooth rounded pillows of drifted snow on steep, northerly aspects.

Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Much more the exception than the rule, Wednesday's accident demonstrated that it is still possible to trigger an avalanche on weak, sugary, faceted snow near the ground in isolated locations. You may still encounter this problem on northerly aspects in areas of steep, rocky, radical terrain where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Slide paths that have been repeat runners during the season are also suspect.

Additional Information

Temperatures will again soar into the mid 40's today around 10,000'. Southwest winds will be on the increase ahead of a storm tracking south into Arizona and New Mexico. Clouds will begin to move in tonight with mostly cloudy skies and a slight chance for snow on Saturday. Sunday looks to be mostly sunny ahead of a moist pattern setting up for next week.

Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Windy, with a south wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Windy, with a south southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Saturday

A chance of snow before 11am, then snow showers likely after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday Night

A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. West northwest wind around 15 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

General Announcements

Road Conditions: The road is a mix of dirt at lower elevations that turns to mud as the day progresses. It is snowpacked higher up.

To post an observation go here. You can view Moab observations here. You can also give me a call on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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