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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Saturday, February 16, 2019
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, the avalanche danger is HIGH. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on all steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a very scary, dangerous, and quite possibly unsurvivable avalanche.
You'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on steep, mid elevation, wind drifted slopes and human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE.
Our trailheads, foothills, and even our own backyards now have a winter snowpack and a MODERATE avalanche danger exists. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE, especially on steep, wind drifted slopes at lower elevations.
Of course you wanna ride, so here's your exit strategy. Choose gentle terrain or big, open meadows with no steep terrain above, adjacent, or connected to where you're traveling. In other words.... simply stay off of and out from under steep, wind drifted slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS CONTINUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.
* TIMING...IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING
* AFFECTED AREA...THE WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS.
* AVALANCHE DANGER... HIGH DANGER. LARGE, HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES BREAKING TO THE GROUND WILL BE LIKELY ON STEEP, UPPER ELEVATION, WIND DRIFTED SLOPES
* REASON/IMPACTS... DAYS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH RECENT DENSE, HEAVY SNOW HAVE CREATED DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS.
*STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER STEEP WIND DRIFTED SLOPES.
Special Announcements
Last Saturday, 49 year old Jason Lyman of Mona was killed in an avalanche accident on the west side of Humpy Peak in the East Fork of the Chalk Creek drainage while riding with a friend and his son. We visited the site Sunday and are currently working on our accident investigation. A preliminary report is available here.
Of course the collective thoughts, prayers, and energy of the UAC go to the friends and family of Mr. Lyman.
Weather and Snow
Last night's quick hitter favored the North Slope delivering 4"-6" of light density snow. The south half of the range, from Trial Lake to Daniel's stacked up about half that amount. In the wake of last nights cold front, winds shifted to the west and northwest and they've relaxed substantially, currently blowing 10-20 mph along the high peaks. Under mostly cloudy skies a few light snow showers linger over the region. We've had a good run with the recent series of storms... the snowpack is deep, the range is white and fat, and riding conditions are about as good as they get.
Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.
Recent Avalanches
This past week saw multiple avalanches, close calls, and unfortunately an avalanche accident.
Below is a massive naturally triggered avalanche in Upper Weber Canyon that ran sometime very early Friday morning. Dave Kikkert and I took a look at this historic slide just hours after the dust settled.
Averaging 6' deep, but topping 8'-10' deep in places, this avalanche was well over 1500' wide and ran 1000' vertically. Dave and I suspect a the thin portion of this slope to the lookers left is where the slide initiated. This swath of snow has avalanched several times this year, it's what we call a "repeater", and has remained thin and weak all winter. This slide clearly illustrates the complex snow structure, along with the tricky nature and scale of the recent avalanche activity in the western Uinta's.
And sadly, last Saturday's tragic avalanche accident in Chalk Creek is pictured above. Triggered while the sledder was low on the slope, this slide broke deep and wide, taking out the entire seasons snowpack, snapping timber as it crashed down onto the slope below.
Recent trip reports and avy activity found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Let's face it... our snowpack is tricky right now. We're dealing with persistent weaknesses, repeater avalanches, and large unpredictable pieces of snow breaking to the ground. It's a complex out there for sure, so why not simplify what's going on.
First- the range is fat and white and the snowpack is gonna feel really strong and supportable. As a matter of fact, we can ride many slopes without incident and think we're good to go.
Second- we have persistent weaknesses buried deep in the snowpack and they're not healing anytime soon. This is the type of structure that is particularly dangerous because we don't even have to be on a steep slope in order to trigger a slide... we just need to be connected to it.
Third- steep, wind drifted terrain that didn't slide during last weeks big storm is particularly problematic, because today's avalanches could still potentially be triggered mid slope, low on the slope, or from a distance. All we need to do is collapse the slope (whoomph), and now we're staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche.
Lots of variables and a few, false "green light" indicators. So, the way we deal with a complicated snowpack is to simply avoid the unknowns. Now, here's what I do know and make no mistake... this is the real deal and not the type of avalanche problem that we want to tangle with or try to outsmart. Once initiated, today's avalanches can break deep and wide, taking out the entire seasons snowpack in some locations, resulting in a potentially unsurvivable slide.
That's too much uncertainty for me to deal with so I'm keeping it simple... patience and avoidance are the only solution. I'm simply gonna ride low angle, wind sheltered slopes and avoid being on or under steep, wind drifted slopes. Done... done.... and done!
I'm gonna keep JG's sage advice as a "sticky" because it's spot on!
"You really get a false sense of security when you are walking, skiing or sledding on such a supportable snowpack. Based on recent avalanches, what I have been seeing in my travels and what I have been seeing in my snowpits I don't think we are close to being out of the water. It's hard to not want to jump into steep terrain when there aren't a lot of visual signs to make you take a step back. Dig in the snow and see for yourself. Just read about the recent tragedies and close calls, it's sobering. Low angle is plenty fun right now, have fun and live another day. The forecast has been spot on, heed the warnings, the Uintas are sketchy right now. "
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Don't let the light density, surface snow fool you into thinking that's all you're dealing with. Southerly winds have blowing for days, building layer, after layer, after layer of wind drifted snow. Now our wind slabs involve multiple storms, so they're more connected, and may break deeper than we might anticipate. While most prevalent on the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, drifting also occurred around terrain features like chutes, gullies, and sub-ridges. In addition, recent winds cranked even down low near the trailheads, so expect to find fresh drifts in unusually low elevation terrain. In any case, today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
Winds have been busy at work not only forming thick wind drifts, but also creating large corni that may break back further than you might expect.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
In addition to last night storm, dense, heavy snow from earlier in the week stacked up at lower elevations making the steep slopes above our mountain communities suspect. If you're going for a snowshoe, trail-run, family outing, or dog walk you'll want to steer clear of steep, snow covered slopes and avoid terrain traps like gullies and road cuts where even a small slide can pile up big piles of cement-like debris.
Additional Information
Scattered snow showers linger over the region, winds remain light, and high temperatures climb into the low 20's. An unsettled and cool pattern remains in place well into next week.
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Sunday February 17th, 2019.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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