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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, December 8, 2019
There's two distinct avalanche problems today with two distinct outcomes.
Unmanageable-
In the wind zone at upper elevations, you'll continue finding MODERATE avalanche danger on steep slopes facing the north half of the compass. Human triggered avalanches are possible, particularly on upper elevation slopes harboring weak, pre-existing snow. Remember- any avalanche that breaks to old snow near the ground may quickly get out of hand, resulting in a deep and dangerous slide.
Manageable-
In addition, while there's not an abundance of loose snow available to blow around, winds are cranking and the Uinta's are a big place. As the storm materializes, fresh wind slabs will react to our additional weight. Along the leeward side of upper elevation ridges you'll find a MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches breaking within the newly formed wind drifts are possible.
Here's your exit strategy-
Wind sheltered low elevation terrain that held no old snow prior to the Thanksgiving storm generally offers LOW avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. South facing terrain with no old snow and big open meadows with no steep terrain above or adjacent to where you're riding are the ticket.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Huge thanks to Weller's Recreation in partnership with Ski-Doo for generously providing this years loaner sled. This critical piece of gear allows us to get deeper into the same places our customers ride, giving us to the ability to issue more accurate forecasts, which, of course, ultimately saves more lives!
Weather and Snow
Storminess hovers just to the north of our region and should slide through the area later this morning, producing a decent shot of snow. In the meantime, skies are partly cloudy, temperatures in the low 30's, and southerly winds remain a nuisance, blowing in the 30's along the high ridges. Last weeks big Thanksgiving storm settled quite a bit, but we have a respectable snowpack with total snow depths averaging just under three feet.
For today-
Snow develops later today with 4"-8" expected by about dinnertime. High temperatures don't vary much from where we're at this morning with overnight lows dipping into the teens. South and southwest winds blow in the 30's and 40's, before switching to the northwest and decreasing with the arrival of a cold front. Snow showers linger into Monday morning.
Above is 24 hour weather data from Windy Peak (11,186') and Chalk Creek (9,169')
Click here for more real time Uinta winds, temperatures, and snow depth.
Recent Avalanches
Week old news, but significant none-the-less, I discovered a large natural avalanche on the north face of Cherry Hill in upper Humpy Basin. Releasing during the Thanksgiving storm cycle this avalanche fits the trend of recent slides breaking deep and wide, failing on weak, early season snow near the ground. While the snowpack slowly gains strength and avalanche activity tempers somewhat, the scary fact is... any slide you trigger in terrain that has weak, old snow near the ground, there's a distinct possibility it'll produce a deep, dangerous avalanche
Of historic note... the piece of snow to the lookers right which remained intact, is the same slope that lead to a tragic avalanche accident on Thanksgiving Day of the 2010-11 winter. .
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It's been a couple days since we've heard from our problem child, the persistent weak layer, now buried close to the ground in our early season snowpack... and of course, that's good news. But here's where it gets a little tricky. As the pack gets stronger it lures us into steep terrain, often without incident, giving us a false sense of snowpack stability. However, all we need to do is find one weakness, maybe around a bush or rock that we can't see buried underneath the snow, collapse the pack, and now we're staring down the barrel of a scary avalanche. The way I'm avoiding this scenario is by simply avoiding the terrain where this setup exists- steep, upper elevation, north facing slopes that harbored snow prior to the big Thanksgiving storm. With plenty of safe options, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
But wait.... here's the good news. There's a lot of terrain to ride today and not have to deal with unmanageable avalanche conditions, IF you chose slopes that had NO old snow prior to the big Thanksgiving storm.
Ted's snow profile from a north facing slope in upper Whitney Basin reveals our current problematic setup... the big Thanksgiving storm rests on weak snow near the ground.
So here's your exit strategy... simply swing around to the south half of the compass where there's no junk in the trunk, ride in the sun, and you can have a blast!
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
While there's not an abundance of loose snow available to blow around, but once the storm gets going, fresh wind drifts will react to our additional weight. Found mostly on upper elevation leeward slopes, expect pockets of wind drifted snow cross loaded in a terrain features like chutes or gullies. Your best bet for avoidance is to simply steer clear of any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it looks chalky or sounds hollow like a drum. In addition, look for and listen to clues like whoomphing sounds or shooting cracks in the snow which are sure signs of unstable conditions.
Additional Information
Please join me on Friday Dec. 13th at 6:30 for a free avalanche awareness presentation in partnership with Wasatch County SAR. It's guaranteed to be entertaining, informative, and I'll share safety tips that allow you to rip powder safely and come home to your families at the end of the day.... pretty good deal... huh?
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires in 24 hours, but will be updated by 7:30 AM Monday Dec. 9th.
This forecast is updated daily by 7:30 AM.
In the mean-time, if you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170
It'll be a minute or two before we're riding, but while you're waiting....
This is a great time of year to schedule one of our free avy awareness presentations.
You can email me directly [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.