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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Saturday morning, December 3, 2022
Heads up.... avy danger is deceptively tricky and any slide triggered today has the distinct possibility of instantly ruining your day-
Look for CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on all steep, mid and upper elevation slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass, where recent strong winds formed fresh wind drifts atop weak faceted snow underneath. Human triggered avalanches breaking deeper and wider than you might expect are LIKELY. In addition, winds have made their way into lower elevation shady slopes where you'll find a MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE. With low elevation terrain getting into the mix, you could get surprised on a steep slope right near the trailhead. Think of slopes like the infamous Mill Hollow slide path
LOW avalanche danger is found on low and mid elevation south facing slopes and human triggered avalanches are UNLIKELY.
Here's your exit strategy... find a mellow, low angle south facing slope or big open meadow with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're traveling and practice your riding skills like carving deep trenches in fresh snow. Remember, don't get too throttle happy because it's still low tide and there's plenty of reef barely hidden underneath our recent storm snow. With a significant danger of hitting rocks, stumps, and other obstacles, you'll wanna tone it down today and don't let a buried treasure ruin your season.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Join the Utah Avalanche Center and the Division of Outdoor Recreation to celebrate the Fourth Annual Avalanche Awareness week, from December 4 - December 11. Click HERE to view the full list of events for the week.
Mirror Lake Highway is closed for the season. SR-35 (Wolf Creek Pass) remains open.
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- High clouds drift into the region early this morning as the leading edge of a weak storm slides through the area late today. In the mean-time, temperatures register in the low to mid teens and southwesterly winds hum along in the 20's and 30's along the high ridges. The hits keep coming... yesterday's storm delivered a solid 10" of snow with an inch of water. The snowpack has a good deal of body, coverage is quite good, and this combo delivers all time early season riding and turning conditions.
Forecast- Look for increasing clouds throughout the day with high temperatures climbing into the upper 20's. Southwest winds bump into the upper 30's and low 40's along the high peaks. Light snow develops late tonight with a couple inches expected. Under mostly cloudy skies, overnight lows dip into the low 20's
Futurecast- Another storm system slated for Sunday into Monday, may bring additional snow accumulations in the 5-10 inch range.
Recent Avalanches
After teaching an AM avy class, Andy and I rolled to the Wolf Creek zone and saw the biggest clue to avalanches.... avalanches... talk about instant feedback! You can see these slides right from the comfort of your own vehicle whilst sipping a morning beverage.
Plenty of avalanche activity this week and the common theme is this... avalanches triggered from a distance, breaking 12"-24" deep, failing on weak faceted snow formed during the late November dryspell. More deets found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows... but a well placed anemometer is certainly a bonus :) Above is a 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak Peak (10,162')
After a brief, Friday mid morning respite, south and southwest winds began ramping up overnight and there's plenty of fresh snow available to blow around and form a whole new round of fresh drifts. Problem is... today's drifts conceal older wind drifted snow that formed early in the week. So, yes... the entire deal is a bit more deceiving. In addition, the snowpack has gained a substantial amount of buoyancy and will feel strong and solid underneath us. But rememeber- hard, dense snow can give us a false sense of snow stability, allowing us to get out further onto a slope before it fails and brings the entire roof down on top of us. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, due to the strength and duration of winds, I'd also be on the lookout for fresh drifts around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In either case, both new and older drifts now rest on weak, faceted, older snow and that means avalanches are gonna be easy to trigger.
Obvious signs of unstable snow include cracking, collapsing, and whoomping noises as well as natures freebie... natural avalanches!
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Here's the setup
Other than steep, south facing terrain, nearly all slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass, exhibit varying depths of contiguous snow. The bad news is... two weeks of dry, cold weather during mid November, turbo charged the faceting process, creating a layer of weak, sugary facets on the snow surface. Prior to last Tuesdays big storm, the weakest snow was found on shady slopes, but is now camouflaged by several rounds of storm snow, making it hard to detect.
Here's where the rubber hits the road and what makes things tricky right now... weak faceted snow is our new problem child with the unruly characteristics of a persistent weak layer (PWL) and it's struggling to adjust to our latest round of snow, water, and wind.
The most significant and most dangerous avalanche dragon is found on mid and upper elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass. Wind sheltered terrain isn't immune to human triggered avalanches, but slides will be smaller, pockety in nature, and not as well connected.
Additional Information
And we've been super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:30 on Saturday December 3rd, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Sunday December 4th.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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