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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Monday morning, January 9, 2023
For the moment, the snowpack is becoming comfortable in its own skin and trending in the right direction-
MODERATE avalanche danger is found on steep, mid and upper elevation slopes, especially in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered wind drifts and more dangerous slides breaking to weak layers now buried deep in our snowpack are POSSIBLE. Generally LOW avalanche danger is found on west, south, and southwest facing slopes and all aspects below treeline.
My exit strategy as I paddle out into the lineup... I'm dipping a toe in the cold water and allowing my brain and body a minute to get a feel for things before dropping into the first big wave I see-
Simply meaning... in a curiously strange Craig Gordon kinda way, I'm still keeping it super conservative while starting to step out into steeper terrain, but doing so on slopes with little to no consequence.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- Skies cleared overnight in the wake of yesterday's storm which delivered a trace to a couple traces of snow. Southerly winds blow 20-30 mph along the high ridges as temperatures register in the mid teens across the board. Yesterday's obnoxious south and southwest winds torched our big open terrain, but lose some elevation and seek out wind sheltered slopes and you'll be rewarded with cold, creamy snow on a go-anywhere base.
Forecast- The break in-between storm systems is gonna be short-lived. Clear skies with temperatures climbing into the upper 20's usher in a pleasant start to the working week and a brief reprieve from the wind. However, a solid shot of snow moves in late this afternoon along with increasingly strong west and southwest winds with gusts in the 60's and 70's by sunset. Dense snow begins falling by late afternoon with the heaviest snow piling up overnight. The south half of the range should do well with 5"-10" stacking up by early Tuesday morning.
Futurecast- A break in the action is slated for Tuesday morning. Another, colder shot of snow is on tap to arrive late in the day continuing throughout Wednesday, delivering an additional foot of North Slope favored snowfall.
My Pillow Guy, Dan G, not gettin' much sleep this weekend while bustin' some pillowy, Utah rock-drops.
Huge thanks for all the great obs streaming in from the eastern front. Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
Roofalanches are a real hazard and can instantly ruin your day. Our mountainside cabins are loaded with snow and can shed the entire seasons snowpack once we start the getting the fire roaring on the inside.
No significant recent avy activity... but a slew of Uinta avy obs are found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
My colleague Andrew Nassetta (snow-pro, avy forecaster, and educator of all things avalanche extraordinaire) points to our PWL now deeply buried and getting harder to provoke. We took that snowpack info and slowly stepped into bigger terrain this weekend.
We are trending towards equilibrium as our snowpack adjusts to the big New Years storm... good news. In fact, the lack of recent avalanche activity suggests each day we get closer to the snowpack becoming more comfortable in its own skin... more good news. And while the chances of triggering a deep dangerous avalanche are becoming less likely over time it's not entirely impossible... all we need to do is find one weakness in the pack, pull the rug out from underneath, and the entire roof crashes down on us. No, it's not like last weekend when the walls were caving in and that'll make today that much more deceptive. Now is the time to start stepping out cautiously, gathering as much snowpack intel we can along the way. Stomp on small steep test slopes and road cuts and see how they're reacting before setting your sights on a big, committing line. And if it isn't feeling right, pump the brakes and recalibrate your objectives, because with all the great mid and lower angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A 24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,662') clearly showing trends in recent winds.
There's no shortage of snow available to blow around and form fresh drifts that'll react to our additional weight. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, I wouldn't be too surprised to find drifting around terrain features like chutes and gullies. In either case, the key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
Such a rock star! Huge thanks to Joey Manship for all the hard work and Herculean efforts getting the Nobletts Beacon Park up and running. Located on the northeast corner of the parking lot, give it a go and practice your rescue skills on a down day, or while you wait for your crew before a ride.
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:31 on Monday January 9th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Tuesday January 10th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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